Power transition theory: Difference between revisions

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Power transition theory, a precursor of the [[Long Cycle Theory| long-cycle theory]] of [[hegemony]], seeks to explain trends between warring states in the past 500 years. It detects a general trend: a nation achieves [[hegemony| hegemonic power]] and then is challenged by a [[great power]]. This leads to a war which, in the past, has resulted a transition between two powers. Eugene R. Wittkopf explores past wars and their relation to power transition theory in his 1997 book ''World Politics: Trend and Transformation''. He explains the interactions using [[George Modelski]]'s Seapower Concentration Index.<ref name="Wittkopf"/>

In 1518, [[Portugal]] assumed a hegemonic position in world politics.{{cn | reason = ''pace'' Hapsburg Spain and Ottoman Turkey.|date=August 2023}} However, as the [[Netherlands]] rose in power during the [[Dutch Golden Age]] of 1588 to 1672, a series of struggles led to the destruction of Portugal's power and a transition to Dutch hegemony. Dutch hegemony came into question from 1688 with the wars of [[Louis XIV of France]], which resulted in what political scientists refer to as the "Britain I Cycle"; the [[Napoleonic Wars]] interrupted this cycle and questioned the hegemony Britain possessed. However, Britainultimately, Allies's [[War of the Seventh Coalition | victory in 1815]] resulted in the maintenance of British power and the "Britain II Cycle".<ref name="Wittkopf"/> This cycle ended with the [[World War]]s of the first half of the 20th century. Wittkopf portrays the period of 1914–1945 as one of particular turbulence in which no power maintained hegemony, even after the 1919 [[Treaty of Versailles]].<ref name="Wittkopf"/> After the [[Second World War]] (1939-1945) the [[United States]] invested in a drastic increase in seapower concentration – and the U.S. and the [[Soviet Union]] became the world's first [[superpower]]s.<ref name="Wittkopf"/>

In general, hegemonic periods last approximately 60 to 90 years and conflicts which result in a period stabilization of power-distribution last approximately 20 years.<ref name="Wittkopf"/> This can be explained through [[war-weariness]] and the tendency (although this was broken in the first half of the 20th century) for nations not to engage themselves in another conflict after being involved in a power transition.<ref name="Wittkopf"/>