Tropical cyclone forecast model: Difference between revisions

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{{See also|History of numerical weather prediction}}

The first dynamical hurricane track forecast model, the Sanders Barotropic Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction Model (SANBAR),<ref>{{cite journal|author=R.W. Burpee|name-list-style=amp |year=2008|title=The Sanders Barotropic Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction Model (SANBAR)|journal=Meteorological Monographs|volume=33|issue=55 |pages=233-240233–240|doi=10.1175/0065-9401-33.55.233|doi-access=free}}</ref> was introduced in 1970 and was used by the National Hurricane Center as part of its operational track guidance through 1989. It was based on a simplified set of atmospheric dynamical equations (the equivalent barotropic formulation) using a deep layer-mean wind.

During 1972, the first model to forecast storm surge along the [[continental shelf]] of the United States was developed, known as the [[Special Program to List the Amplitude of Surges from Hurricanes]] (SPLASH).<ref>{{cite web|url=http://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/sloshPub/pubs/SLOSH_TR48.pdf|title=SLOSH: Sea, lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes. NOAA Technical Report NWS 48|author=Jelesnianski, C. P., J. Chen, and W. A. Shaffer|date=April 1992|access-date=2011-03-15|publisher=[[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]]|page=2}}</ref> In 1978, the first full-physics hurricane-tracking model based on [[Atmospheric dynamics#Dynamic meteorology|atmospheric dynamics]] – the movable fine-mesh (MFM) model – began operating.<ref name="Shuman W&F">{{cite journal|last=Shuman|first=Frederick G.|author-link=Frederick Gale Shuman|title=History of Numerical Weather Prediction at the National Meteorological Center|journal=[[Weather and Forecasting]]|date=September 1989|volume=4|issue=3|pages=286–296|issn=1520-0434|doi=10.1175/1520-0434(1989)004<0286:HONWPA>2.0.CO;2|bibcode=1989WtFor...4..286S|doi-access=free}}</ref> The Quasi-Lagrangian Limited Area (QLM) model is a multi-level primitive equation model using a [[Cartesian coordinate system|Cartesian]] grid and the [[Global Forecast System]] (GFS) for boundary conditions.<ref name="models"/> In the early 1980s, the assimilation of satellite-derived winds from water vapor, infrared, and visible satellite imagery was found to improve tropical cyclones track forecasting.<ref>{{cite journal|url=http://www.bom.gov.au/amm/docs/1996/lemarshall2.pdf|page=275|title=Tropical Cyclone ''Beti'' – an Example of the Benefits of Assimilating Hourly Satellite Wind Data|author1=Le Marshall |author2=J. F. |author3=L. M. Leslie |author4=A. F. Bennett |name-list-style=amp |journal=Australian Meteorological Magazine|volume=45|year=1996}}</ref> The [[Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory]] (GFDL) hurricane model was used for research purposes between 1973 and the mid-1980s. Once it was determined that it could show skill in hurricane prediction, a multi-year transition transformed the research model into an operational model which could be used by the [[National Weather Service]] for both track and intensity forecasting in 1995.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/operational-hurricane-forecasting|author=Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory|author-link=Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory|title=Operational Hurricane Track and Intensity Forecasting|publisher=[[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]]|date=2011-01-28|access-date=2011-02-25}}</ref> By 1985, the Sea Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Model had been developed for use in areas of the [[Gulf of Mexico]] and near the United States' East coast, which was more robust than the SPLASH model.<ref>{{cite journal|author1=Jarvinen B. J. |author2=C. J. Neumann |name-list-style=amp |year=1985|title=An evaluation of the SLOSH storm surge model|journal=Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society|volume=66|issue=11 |pages=1408–1411|bibcode=1985BAMS...66.1408.|doi=10.1175/1520-0477-66.11.1408|doi-access=free}}</ref>