Delphi method: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 23:07, 23 March 2024

Revision as of 15:32, 3 May 2024

Line 1:

{{Short description|Interactive forecasting method}}

{{more citations needed|date=March 2023}}{{Futures studies}}The '''Delphi method''' or '''Delphi technique''' ({{IPAc-en|ˈ|d|ɛ|l|f|aɪ}} {{respell|DEL|fy}}; also known as '''Estimate-Talk-Estimate''' or '''ETE''') is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive [[forecasting]] method that relies on a panel of experts.<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Dalkey N, Helmer O | year = 1963 | title = An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the use of experts | journal = Management Science | volume = 9 | issue = 3| pages = 458–467 | doi=10.1287/mnsc.9.3.458| hdl = 2027/inu.30000029301680 | hdl-access = free }}</ref><ref>{{cite report | vauthors = Brown BB | title = Delphi Process: A Methodology Used for the Elicitation of Opinions of Experts. | publisher = Rand Corp | ___location = Santa Monica CA | date = September 1968 | id = P-3925 | url = https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/AD0675981 }}</ref><ref>{{cite report | vauthors = Sackman H | title = Delphi assessment: Expert opinion, forecasting, and group process. | publisher = The Rand Corporation | ___location = Santa Monica CA | id = R-1283-PR | date = 1974 | url =https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/AD0786878 }}</ref><ref>{{cite report | vauthors = Brown T | title = An Experiment in Probabilistic Forecasting | publisher = The Rand Corporation | ___location = Santa Monica CA | id = R-944-ARPA | date = 1972 | url = https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/AD0777061 }}</ref><ref>{{cite book |title=The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications |url=http://is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/ |year=1975 | veditors = Linstone HA, Turoff M |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080520015240/http://is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/ |___location=Reading, Mass. |publisher=Addison-Wesley |isbn=978-0-201-04294-8 |archive-date=2008-05-20 |url-status=dead}}</ref> The technique can also be adapted for use in face-to-face meetings, and is then called '''mini-Delphi'''. Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages over another structured forecasting approach, [[prediction markets]].<ref name="Green_2008" />

Delphi can also be used to help reach expert consensus and develop professional guidelines.<ref name="Taylor2020"/> It is used for such purposes in many health-related fields, including clinical medicine, public health, and research.<ref name="Taylor2020"/><ref name=Moher2010/>

Line 88:

Today the Delphi method is a widely accepted forecasting tool and has been used successfully for thousands of studies in areas varying from technology forecasting to [[drug abuse]].<ref>{{cite book | vauthors = Jillson IA | chapter = II.B.3. The National Drug-Abuse Policy Delphi: Progress Report and Findings to Date | veditors = Turoff M, Linstone HA | title = The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications | date = 2002 | chapter-url = http://is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/ch3b3.html | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20120206170836/http://is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/ch3b3.html | archive-date = 6 February 2012 }}</ref>

Overall the track record of the Delphi method is mixed<ref name=":1">Khodyakov, D., Grant, S.,  Kroger, J.,  Bauman, M. (2023). ''RAND methodological guidance for conducting and critically appraising Delphi panels.'' RAND Corporation. www.rand.org/t/TLA3082-1</ref>. There have been many cases when the method produced poor results. Still, some authors attribute this to poor application of the method and not to the weaknesses of the method itself.{{Citation needed|date=JulyThe 2010}}''RAND ItMethodological mustGuidance alsofor beConducting realizedand thatCritically inAppraising areasDelphi suchPanels'' asis sciencea manual for doing Delphi research which provides guidance for doing research and technologyoffers forecasting,a theappraisal degreetool<ref ofname=":1" uncertainty/>.This ismanual sogives greatguidance thaton exactbest andpractices alwaysthat correctwill predictionshelp areto impossibleavoid, soor amitigate, highpotential degreedrawbacks of errorDelphi isMethod Research; it also helps to understand the confidence that can be expectedgiven to study results.

It must also be realized that in areas such as science and technology forecasting, the degree of uncertainty is so great that exact and always correct predictions are impossible, so a high degree of error is to be expected. An important challenge for the method is ensuring sufficiently knowledgeable panelists. If panelists are misinformed about a topic, the use of Delphi may only add confidence to their ignorance.<ref name = "Green_2008">{{cite journal | vauthors = Green KC, Armstrong JS, Graefe A | title = Methods to elicit forecasts from groups: Delphi and prediction markets compared. | journal = Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting | date = June 2008 | volume = 8 | pages = 17–20 | doi = 10.2139/ssrn.1153124 | url = https://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1168&context=marketing_papers }}</ref>

One of the initial problems of the method was its inability to make complex forecasts with multiple factors. Potential future outcomes were usually considered as if they had no effect on each other. Later on, several extensions to the Delphi method were developed to address this problem, such as [[cross impact analysis]], that takes into consideration the possibility that the occurrence of one event may change probabilities of other events covered in the survey. Still the Delphi method can be used most successfully in forecasting single scalar indicators.