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{{short description|Unavoidable future climate change due to inertial effects}}
[[File:1979- Radiative forcing - climate change - global warming - EPA NOAA.svg |thumb|right|upright=1.5 |The ongoing buildup of [[IPCC list of greenhouse gases|long-lived greenhouse gases]] in Earth's atmosphere, whose warming influence has nearly doubled since 1979, shows mankind's influence on the global climate.<ref name=NOAA_AGGI_2023>{{cite web |title=The NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) |url=https://gml.noaa.gov/aggi/aggi.html |website=NOAA.gov |publisher=National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20241005195609/https://gml.noaa.gov/aggi/aggi.html |archive-date=5 October 2024 |date=2024 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |url=https://www.globalchange.gov/browse/indicators/annual-greenhouse-gas-index |title=Annual Greenhouse Gas Index |publisher=U.S. Global Change Research Program |archive-date=21 April 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210421143115/https://www.globalchange.gov/browse/indicators/annual-greenhouse-gas-index |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |url=https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/ |title=The NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) - An Introduction |publisher=[[NOAA]] Global Monitoring Laboratory/Earth System Research Laboratories |access-date=2 March 2023}}</ref>]]
'''Climate commitment''' describes the fact that Earth's [[climate]] reacts with a delay to influencing factors ("[[climate forcing]]s") such as the growth and the greater presence of [[greenhouse gas]]es. Climate commitment studies attempt to assess the amount of future [[global warming]] that is "committed" under the assumption of some constant or some evolving level of forcing. The constant level often used for illustrative purposes is that due to [[carbon dioxide|{{CO2}}]] doubling or quadrupling relative to the pre-industrial level; or the present level of forcing.
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== History ==
The concept has been discussed as far back as 1995 in the [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change|IPCC]] [[IPCC Third Assessment Report|TAR]] [https://web.archive.org/web/20071231162245/http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/008.htm] and in the [[IPCC_Second_Assessment_Report|SAR]].
== Misuse ==
Climate commitment studies span a range of possible outcomes which are intimately tied to past, present and future human choices. The "commitment" concept can be misused if used to assert that worst cases are unavoidable regardless of societal [[agency (sociology)|agency]]. Models rather indicate that additional surface warming can be halted almost simultaneous with rapid reductions in emissions.<ref>{{cite journal |url=https://www.science.org/cms/asset/7446d1ba-b4b9-4c2d-945b-ea04ca0547d6/pap.pdf |title=Irreversible Does Not Mean Unavoidable |last1=Mathews |first1=H. Damon |last2=Solomon |first2=Susan |journal=Science |publisher=American Association for the Advancement of Science |volume=340 |issue=6131 |pages=438–439 |date=26 April 2013 |doi=10.1126/science.1236372|pmid=23539182 |bibcode=2013Sci...340..438M |s2cid=44352274 }}</ref>
== See also ==
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