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In 1978, the first [[tropical cyclone forecast model|hurricane-tracking model]] based on [[Atmospheric dynamics#Dynamic meteorology|atmospheric dynamics]]—the movable fine-mesh (MFM) model—began operating.<ref name="Shuman W&F"/> Within the field of [[tropical cyclone track forecasting]], despite the ever-improving dynamical model guidance which occurred with increased computational power, it was not until the 1980s when numerical weather prediction showed [[Forecast skill|skill]], and until the 1990s when it consistently outperformed [[statistical model|statistical]] or simple dynamical models.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml|publisher=[[National Hurricane Center]]|date=2010-04-20|access-date=2011-01-02|author=Franklin, James|title=National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification|author-link=James Franklin (meteorologist)}}</ref> Predictions of the intensity of a tropical cyclone based on numerical weather prediction continue to be a challenge, since statistical methods continue to show higher skill over dynamical guidance.<ref>{{cite journal|author=Rappaport, Edward N. |author2=Franklin, James L. |author3=Avila, Lixion A. |author4=Baig, Stephen R. |author5=Beven II, John L. |author6=Blake, Eric S. |author7=Burr, Christopher A. |author8=Jiing, Jiann-Gwo |author9=Juckins, Christopher A. |author10=Knabb, Richard D. |author11=Landsea, Christopher W. |author12=Mainelli, Michelle |author13=Mayfield, Max |author14=McAdie, Colin J. |author15=Pasch, Richard J. |author16=Sisko, Christopher |author17=Stewart, Stacy R. |author18=Tribble, Ahsha N.|title=Advances and Challenges at the National Hurricane Center|journal=[[Weather and Forecasting]]|date=April 2009|volume=24|issue=2|pages=395–419|doi=10.1175/2008WAF2222128.1|bibcode=2009WtFor..24..395R|citeseerx=10.1.1.207.4667 |s2cid=14845745 }}</ref>
===Weather forecasts===
Because weather drifts across the world, producing forecasts a week or more in advance typically involves running a numerical prediction model for the entire planet. Agencies use various software to do this, including:
* [[North American Ensemble Forecast System]], which combines results from:
** [[Global Forecast System]] from the US [[National Weather Service]]
** [[Global Environmental Multiscale Model]] from the [[Canadian Meteorological Centre]]
* [[Integrated Forecast System]] from the [[European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts]] and [[Météo-France]]
* [[Navy Global Environmental Model]] from the US Navy [[Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center]]
* [[Unified Model]], produced by a partnership of:
** UK [[Met Office]]
** Australia [[Bureau of Meteorology]]
** (South) [[Korea Meteorological Administration]]
** India [[National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting]]<ref>[https://ncmrwf.gov.in/ncmrwf/NCUMG-Writeup-for-WEB-June2020.pdf Global NCMRWF Unified Model (NCUM-G) System]</ref>
** New Zealand [[National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research]]
* [[Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic]] (ICON) from [[Deutscher Wetterdienst]], the German Meteorological Service
The global models can be used to supply [[boundary conditions]] to higher-resolution models that provide more accurate forecasts for an area of interest, such as the country served by a government agency, or an area where military action or rescue efforts are planned.
* Users of the Unified Model re-run the same system (hence the name) for a specific country or crisis zone at a higher horizontal resolution, feeding it the output of the global Unified Model run. This is given a different name, such as the UKV model or the New Zealand Limited Area Model.<ref>[https://www.nesi.org.nz/case-studies/improving-new-zealands-weather-forecasting-ability A 36 hour forecast by NZCSM takes 130 minutes to complete using 810 processors spread across 13 nodes of FitzRoy]</ref>
* The US National Weather Service runs the [[Weather Research and Forecasting Model]] with different parameters to create:
** [[North American Mesoscale Model]] (NAM) every six hours (with an ensemble called Short Range Ensemble Forecast, SREF)
** [[Rapid Refresh (weather prediction)|Rapid Refresh]] (RAP) and High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), every hour<ref>[https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/ Rapid Refresh (RAP)]</ref><ref>[https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/ The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)]</ref>
The output of higher-resolution models may be further modified by [[model output statistics]] to take into quirky local phenomena that general models do not handle well, such as [[mountain waves]].
===Wildfire modeling===
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