Numerical weather prediction: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 11:02, 1 February 2025

Revision as of 11:14, 1 February 2025

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** New Zealand [[National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research]]

* [[Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic]] (ICON) from [[Deutscher Wetterdienst]], the German Meteorological Service

* Global Spectral Model and Global Ensemble Prediction System from the [[Japan Meteorological Agency]]<ref name="JMA">[https://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/Activities/nwp.html Numerical Weather Prediction Activities]</ref>

The global models can be used to supply [[boundary conditions]] to higher-resolution models that provide more accurate forecasts for an area of interest, such as the country served by a government agency, or an area where military action or rescue efforts are planned.

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** [[North American Mesoscale Model]] (NAM) every six hours (with an ensemble called Short Range Ensemble Forecast, SREF)

** [[Rapid Refresh (weather prediction)|Rapid Refresh]] (RAP) and High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), every hour<ref>[https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/ Rapid Refresh (RAP)]</ref><ref>[https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/ The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR)]</ref>

* The Japan Meteorological Agency runs:<ref name="JMA">

** Meso-Scale Model (MSM) every 3 hours, looking 39 and 78 hours ahead

** Meso-scale Ensemble Prediction System every 6 hours, looking 39 hours ahead (providing uncertainty estimation)

** Local Forecast Model every hour, looking 10-18 hours ahead

The output of higher-resolution models may be further modified by [[model output statistics]] to take into quirky local phenomena that general models do not handle well, such as [[mountain waves]].