Numerical weather prediction: Difference between revisions

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===Climate modeling===

{{See also|Global climate model}}

A General Circulation Model (GCM) is a [[mathematical model]] that can be used in computer simulations of the global circulation of a planetary [[atmosphere]] or ocean. An atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is essentially the same as a global numerical weather prediction model, and some (such as the one used in the UK Unified Model) can be configured for both short-term weather forecasts and longer-term climate predictions. Along with [[sea ice]] and land-surface components, AGCMs and oceanic GCMs (OGCM) are key components of global climate models, and are widely applied for understanding the [[climate]] and projecting [[climate change]]. For aspects of climate change, a range of man-made chemical emission scenarios can be fed into the climate models to see how an enhanced [[greenhouse effect]] would modify the Earth's climate.<ref>{{cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=Pzx_Nz1qgd8C&pg=PA40|author=Australian Bureau of Statistics|title=Year book, Australia, Issue 87|page=40|year=2005|access-date=2011-02-18}}</ref> Versions designed for climate applications with time scales of decades to centuries were originally created in 1969 by [[Syukuro Manabe]] and [[Kirk Bryan (oceanographer)|Kirk Bryan]] at the [[Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory]] in [[Princeton, New Jersey]].<ref>{{cite web |url=http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/breakthroughs/climate_model/welcome.html |title=The First Climate Model |author=[[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]] 200th Celebration |publisher=[[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]]|date=2008-05-22 |access-date=2010-04-20 }}</ref> Also influential in the field of numerical modeling at the GFDL were [[Isidoro Orlanski]] and [[Joseph Smagorinsky]]. When run for multiple decades, computational limitations mean that the models must use a coarse grid that leaves smaller-scale interactions unresolved.<ref>{{cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=bV3C5VCC-0EC&pg=PA282|pages=284–289|title=The global climate system: patterns, processes, and teleconnections|author=Bridgman, Howard A., John E. Oliver, Michael H. Glantz|year=2006|publisher=Cambridge University Press|isbn=978-0-521-82642-6|access-date=2011-02-18}}</ref>

===Ocean surface modeling===