Demographic transition: Difference between revisions

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The Second Demographic Transition (SDT) is a conceptual framework first formulated in 1986 by Ron Lesthaeghe and [[Dick van de Kaa|Dirk van de Kaa]].<ref name="Lesthaeghe_2011">{{citation |author=Ron J. Lesthaeghe |date=2011 |title=The "second demographic transition": a conceptual map for the understanding of late modern demographic developments in fertility and family formation |journal=Historical Social Research |volume=36 |number=2 |pages=179–218 |url=http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-342259}}</ref>{{rp|181}}<ref name="Lesthaeghe_2011"/><ref name="Bevolking">{{cite book|author1=Ron Lesthaeghe |author2=Dirk van de Kaa|author-link2=Dick van de Kaa|title=Bevolking: groei en krimp [Population: growth and shrinkage]|date=1986|publisher=Deventer : Van Loghum Slaterus|isbn=9789036800181|pages=9–24|chapter=Twee demografische transities? [Second Demographic Transition]}}(in Dutch with summaries in English)</ref><ref name="Lesthaeghe_1991">{{citation |author=Ron J. Lesthaeghe |date=1991 |title=The Second Demographic Transition in Western countries: An interpretation |url=https://www.researchgate.net/publication/257928736 |format=PDF |series=IPD Working Paper, Interuniversity Programme in Demography |access-date=February 26, 2017}}</ref> SDT addressed the changes in the patterns of sexual and reproductive behavior which occurred in North America and Western Europe in the period from about 1963, when the [[combined oral contraceptive pill|birth control pill]] and other cheap effective contraceptive methods such as the IUD were adopted by the general population, to the present. Combined with the [[sexual revolution]] and the increased role of women in society and the workforce the resulting changes have profoundly affected the demographics of industrialized countries resulting in a [[sub-replacement fertility]] level.<ref name="Kaa012902">{{cite journal|author1=Dirk J. van de Kaa|title=The Idea of a Second Demographic Transition in Industrialized Countries|date=29 January 2002|url=http://websv.ipss.go.jp/webj-ad/WebJournal.files/population/2003_4/Kaa.pdf|access-date=May 6, 2016|archive-date=29 October 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201029113743/http://websv.ipss.go.jp/webj-ad/WebJournal.files/population/2003_4/Kaa.pdf|url-status=dead}}</ref>
 
The changes, including increased numbers of women choosing to not marry or have children, increased cohabitation outside marriage, increased childbearing by single mothers, increased participation by women in higher education and professional careers, and other changes are associated with increased individualism and autonomy, particularly of women. Motivations have changed from traditional and economic ones to those of self-realization.<ref name="PNAC122314">{{cite journal|author1=Ron Lesthaeghe|title=The second demographic transition: A concise overview of its development|journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America|date=December 23, 2014 |volume=111|issue=51|pages=18112–18115|doi=10.1073/pnas.1420441111|pmid=25453112|pmc=4280616|bibcode=2014PNAS..11118112L|doi-access=free}}</ref>
 
In 2015, Nicholas Eberstadt, political economist at the [[American Enterprise Institute]] in Washington, described the Second Demographic Transition as one in which "long, stable marriages are out, and divorce or separation are in, along with serial cohabitation and increasingly contingent liaisons."<ref name="WSJ_Eberstadt_2015">{{citation |quote='They're getting divorced, and they'll do anything NOT to get custody of the kids." So reads the promotional poster, in French, for a new movie, "Papa ou Maman"|title=The Global Flight From the Family: It's not only in the West or prosperous nations—the decline in marriage and drop in birth rates is rampant, with potentially dire fallout |author=Nicholas Eberstadt |url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/nicholas-eberstadt-the-global-flight-from-the-family-1424476179|date=February 21, 2015 |access-date=February 26, 2017 |publisher=Wall Street Journal }}</ref>[[S. Philip Morgan]] thought future development orientation for SDT is Social demographers should explore a theory that is not based on stages, a theory that does not set a single line, a development path for some final stage—in the case of SDT, a hypothesis that looks like the advanced Western countries that most embrace postmodern values.