Content deleted Content added
link fix |
Citation bot (talk | contribs) Altered pages. Add: pages, doi. Removed URL that duplicated identifier. Removed access-date with no URL. Formatted dashes. | Use this bot. Report bugs. | Suggested by Dominic3203 | Linked from User:Jim.belk/Most_viewed_math_articles_(2010) | #UCB_webform_linked 229/998 |
||
Line 4:
Delphi can also be used to help reach expert consensus and develop professional guidelines.<ref name="Taylor2020"/> It is used for such purposes in many health-related fields, including clinical medicine, public health, and research.<ref name="Taylor2020"/><ref name=Moher2010/>
Delphi is based on the principle that forecasts (or decisions) from a structured group of individuals are more accurate than those from unstructured groups.<ref name="rw2001">{{cite book | vauthors = Rowe G, Wright G | author-link2 = George Wright (psychologist) | date = 2001 | chapter = Expert Opinions in Forecasting: The Role of the Delphi Technique | veditors = Armstrong | title = Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook of Researchers and Practitioners | series = International Series in Operations Research & Management Science | volume = 30 | pages = 125–144 | ___location = Boston | publisher = Kluwer Academic Publishers | doi = 10.1007/978-0-306-47630-3_7 | isbn = 978-0-7923-7401-5 | chapter-url = https://www3.nd.edu/~busiforc/handouts/Other%20Articles/expertopinions.pdf }}</ref> The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a [[facilitator]] or change agent<ref>{{Cite journal | vauthors = McLaughlin MW |date=1990 |title=The Rand Change Agent Study Revisited: Macro Perspectives and Micro Realities |jstor =1176973 |journal=Educational Researcher |volume=19 |issue=9 |pages=11–16 |doi=10.3102/0013189X019009011 |issn=0013-189X}}</ref> provides an anonymised summary of the experts' forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a predefined stopping criterion (e.g., number of rounds, achievement of consensus, stability of results), and the [[mean]] or [[median]] scores of the final rounds determine the results.<ref name="rw1999">{{cite journal | vauthors = Rowe G, Wright G | title = The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis. | journal = International Journal of Forecasting | date = October 1999 | volume = 15 | issue = 4 | pages = 353–375 | doi = 10.1016/S0169-2070(99)00018-7 | s2cid = 10745965 }}</ref>
Special attention has to be paid to the formulation of the Delphi theses and the definition and selection of the experts in order to avoid methodological weaknesses that severely threaten the validity and reliability of the results.<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Markmann C, Spickermann A, von der Gracht HA, Brem A | title = Improving the question formulation in Delphi-like surveys: Analysis of the effects of abstract language and amount of information on response behavior. | journal = Futures & Foresight Science | date = March 2021 | volume = 3 | issue = 1 | pages = e56 | doi = 10.1002/ffo2.56 | s2cid = 225273393 | doi-access = free }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Mauksch S, Heiko A, Gordon TJ | title = Who is an expert for foresight? A review of identification methods. | journal = Technological Forecasting and Social Change | date = May 2020 | volume = 154 | pages = 119982 | doi = 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.119982 | s2cid = 216161197 }} </ref>
Line 69:
==== Public health ====
Some examples of its application in [[public health]] contexts include [[metabolic dysfunction–associated steatotic liver disease|non-alcoholic fatty liver disease]],<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Lazarus JV, Mark HE, Anstee QM, Arab JP, Batterham RL, Castera L, Cortez-Pinto H, Crespo J, Cusi K, Dirac MA, Francque S, George J, Hagström H, Huang TT, Ismail MH, Kautz A, Sarin SK, Loomba R, Miller V, Newsome PN, Ninburg M, Ocama P, Ratziu V, Rinella M, Romero D, Romero-Gómez M, Schattenberg JM, Tsochatzis EA, Valenti L, Wong VW, Yilmaz Y, Younossi ZM, Zelber-Sagi S | display-authors = 6 | title = Advancing the global public health agenda for NAFLD: a consensus statement | journal = Nature Reviews. Gastroenterology & Hepatology | volume = 19 | issue = 1 | pages = 60–78 | date = January 2022 | pmid = 34707258 | doi = 10.1038/s41575-021-00523-4 | s2cid = 239891445 | doi-access = free | hdl = 11424/243850 | hdl-access = free }}</ref> iodine deficiency disorders,<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Schaffner M, Rochau U, Stojkov I, Qerimi Rushaj V, Völzke H, Marckmann G, Lazarus JH, Oberaigner W, Siebert U | display-authors = 6 | title = Barriers Against Prevention Programs for Iodine Deficiency Disorders in Europe: A Delphi Study | journal = Thyroid | volume = 31 | issue = 4 | pages = 649–657 | date = April 2021 | pmid = 32912084 | doi = 10.1089/thy.2020.0065 | s2cid = 221622474 }}</ref> building responsive health systems for communities affected by migration,<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Pottie K, Hui C, Rahman P, Ingleby D, Akl EA, Russell G, Ling L, Wickramage K, Mosca D, Brindis CD | display-authors = 6 | title = Building Responsive Health Systems to Help Communities Affected by Migration: An International Delphi Consensus | journal = International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health | volume = 14 | issue = 2 | pages = 144 | date = February 2017 | pmid = 28165380 | pmc = 5334698 | doi = 10.3390/ijerph14020144 | doi-access = free }}</ref> the role of health systems in advancing well-being for those living with HIV,<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Lazarus JV, Safreed-Harmon K, Kamarulzaman A, Anderson J, Leite RB, Behrens G, Bekker LG, Bhagani S, Brown D, Brown G, Buchbinder S, Caceres C, Cahn PE, Carrieri P, Caswell G, Cooke GS, Monforte AD, Dedes N, Del Amo J, Elliott R, El-Sadr WM, Fuster-Ruiz de Apodaca MJ, Guaraldi G, Hallett T, Harding R, Hellard M, Jaffar S, Kall M, Klein M, Lewin SR, Mayer K, Pérez-Molina JA, Moraa D, Naniche D, Nash D, Noori T, Pozniak A, Rajasuriar R, Reiss P, Rizk N, Rockstroh J, Romero D, Sabin C, Serwadda D, Waters L | display-authors = 6 | title = Consensus statement on the role of health systems in advancing the long-term well-being of people living with HIV | journal = Nature Communications | volume = 12 | issue = 1 | pages = 4450 | date = July 2021 | pmid = 34272399 | pmc = 8285468 | doi = 10.1038/s41467-021-24673-w | bibcode = 2021NatCo..12.4450L }}</ref> on policies and interventions to reduce harmful [[gambling]],<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Regan |first1=Marguerite |last2=Smolar |first2=Maria |last3=Burton |first3=Robyn |last4=Clarke |first4=Zoe |last5=Sharpe |first5=Casey |last6=Henn |first6=Clive |last7=Marsden |first7=John |date=August 2022 |title=Policies and interventions to reduce harmful gambling: an international Delphi consensus and implementation rating study
==== Reporting guidelines====
Line 85:
The Argument Delphi, developed by Osmo Kuusi, focuses on ongoing discussion and finding relevant arguments rather than focusing on the output. The Disaggregative Policy Delphi, developed by Petri Tapio, uses cluster analysis as a systematic tool to construct various scenarios of the future in the latest Delphi round.<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Tapio P | year = 2003 | title = Disaggregative Policy Delphi: Using cluster analysis as a tool for systematic scenario formation | journal = Technological Forecasting and Social Change | volume = 70 | issue = 1| pages = 83–101 | doi = 10.1016/S0040-1625(01)00177-9 | s2cid = 53516828 }}</ref> The respondent's view on the probable and the preferable future are dealt with as separate cases. The computerization of Argument Delphi is relatively difficult because of several problems like argument resolution, argument aggregation and argument evaluation. The computerization of Argument Delphi, developed by [[Sadi Evren Seker]], proposes solutions to such problems.<ref>{{cite journal | vauthors = Seker SE | year = 2015 | title = Computerized Argument Delphi Technique | journal = IEEE Access | volume = 3 | issue = 2| pages = 368–380 | doi = 10.1109/ACCESS.2015.2424703 | doi-access = free | bibcode = 2015IEEEA...3..368S }}</ref>
A fast-track Delphi was developed to provide consensual expert opinion on the state of scientific knowledge in public health crises.<ref name=fast-track/> It can provide results within three weeks, while the conventional Delphi can take several months (sometimes years).<ref name=fast-track>{{cite journal |last1=Velarde Crézé |first1=Camille |last2=Duperrex |first2=Olivier |last3=Lebon |first3=Luc |last4=Faivre |first4=Vincent |last5=Pasche |first5=Myriam |last6=Cornuz |first6=Jacques |date=18 December 2024 |title=A multi-stage approach to support timely health policy decisions during crisis: the fast-track Delphi
==Accuracy==
| |||