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{{Main|History of numerical weather prediction}}
[[File:Two women operating ENIAC.gif|thumb|280px|The ENIAC main control panel at the [[Moore School of Electrical Engineering]] operated by [[Jean Bartik|Betty Jennings]] and [[Frances Spence|Frances Bilas]]]]
The [[history of numerical weather prediction]] began in the 1920s through the efforts of [[Lewis Fry Richardson]], who used procedures originally developed by [[Vilhelm Bjerknes]]<ref name="Lynch JCP"/> to produce by hand a six-hour forecast for the state of the atmosphere over two points in central Europe, taking at least six weeks to do so.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Simmons |first1=A. J. |last2=Hollingsworth |first2=A. |date=2002 |title=Some aspects of the improvement in skill of numerical weather prediction |url=https://doi.org/10.1256/003590002321042135 |journal=Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |volume=128 |issue=580 |pages=647–677 | doi=10.1256/003590002321042135|bibcode=2002QJRMS.128..647S |s2cid=121625425 |url-access=subscription }}</ref><ref name="Lynch JCP">{{cite journal|last=[[Peter Lynch (meteorologist)|Lynch]]|first=Peter|title=The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling|journal=[[Journal of Computational Physics]]|date=March 2008|volume=227|issue=7|pages=3431–44|doi=10.1016/j.jcp.2007.02.034|bibcode=2008JCoPh.227.3431L|url=http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/personal/miskandarani/Courses/MPO662/Lynch,Peter/OriginsCompWF.JCP227.pdf|access-date=2010-12-23|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100708191309/http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/personal/miskandarani/Courses/MPO662/Lynch,Peter/OriginsCompWF.JCP227.pdf|archive-date=2010-07-08}}</ref><ref name="Lynch Ch1">{{cite book|last=Lynch|first=Peter|title=The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction|url=https://archive.org/details/emergencenumeric00lync|url-access=limited|year=2006|publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]]|isbn=978-0-521-85729-1|pages=[https://archive.org/details/emergencenumeric00lync/page/n11 1]–27|chapter=Weather Prediction by Numerical Process}}</ref> It was not until the advent of the computer and [[computer simulation]]s that computation time was reduced to less than the forecast period itself. The [[ENIAC]] was used to create the first weather forecasts via computer in 1950, based on a highly simplified approximation to the atmospheric governing equations.<ref name="Charney 1950"/><ref>{{cite book|title=Storm Watchers|page=[https://archive.org/details/stormwatcherstur00cox_df1/page/208 208]|year=2002|author=Cox, John D.|publisher=John Wiley & Sons, Inc.|isbn=978-0-471-38108-2|url=https://archive.org/details/stormwatcherstur00cox_df1/page/208}}</ref> In 1954, [[Carl-Gustav Rossby]]'s group at the [[Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute]] used the same model to produce the first operational forecast (i.e., a routine prediction for practical use).<ref name="Harper BAMS">{{cite journal|last=Harper|first=Kristine|author2=Uccellini, Louis W. |author3=Kalnay, Eugenia |author4=Carey, Kenneth |author5= Morone, Lauren |title=2007: 50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction|journal=[[Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society]]|date=May 2007|volume=88|issue=5|pages=639–650|doi=10.1175/BAMS-88-5-639|bibcode=2007BAMS...88..639H|doi-access=free}}</ref> Operational numerical weather prediction in the United States began in 1955 under the Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit (JNWPU), a joint project by the [[U.S. Air Force]], [[U.S. Navy|Navy]] and [[U.S. Weather Bureau|Weather Bureau]].<ref>{{cite web|author=American Institute of Physics|date=2008-03-25|url=http://www.aip.org/history/sloan/gcm/ |title=Atmospheric General Circulation Modeling|access-date=2008-01-13 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20080325084036/http://www.aip.org/history/sloan/gcm/ |archive-date = 2008-03-25}}</ref> In 1956, [[Norm Phillips|Norman Phillips]] developed a mathematical model which could realistically depict monthly and seasonal patterns in the troposphere; this became the first successful [[climate model]].<ref name="Phillips">{{cite journal|last=Phillips|first=Norman A.|title=The general circulation of the atmosphere: a numerical experiment|journal=Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society|date=April 1956|volume=82|issue=352|pages=123–154|doi=10.1002/qj.49708235202|bibcode=1956QJRMS..82..123P}}</ref><ref name="Cox210">{{cite book|title=Storm Watchers|page=[https://archive.org/details/stormwatcherstur00cox_df1/page/210 210]|year=2002|author=Cox, John D.|publisher=John Wiley & Sons, Inc.|isbn=978-0-471-38108-2|url=https://archive.org/details/stormwatcherstur00cox_df1/page/210}}</ref> Following Phillips' work, several groups began working to create [[general circulation model]]s.<ref name="Lynch Ch10">{{cite book|last=Lynch|first=Peter|title=The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction|url=https://archive.org/details/emergencenumeric00lync|url-access=limited|year=2006|publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]]|isbn=978-0-521-85729-1|pages=[https://archive.org/details/emergencenumeric00lync/page/n216 206]–208|chapter=The ENIAC Integrations}}</ref> The first general circulation climate model that combined both oceanic and atmospheric processes was developed in the late 1960s at the [[NOAA]] [[Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/breakthroughs/climate_model/welcome.html|title=The First Climate Model|author=[[National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration]]|date=2008-05-22|access-date=2011-01-08}}</ref>
As computers have become more powerful, the size of the initial data sets has increased and [[Atmospheric model#Types|newer atmospheric models]] have been developed to take advantage of the added available computing power. These newer models include more physical processes in the simplifications of the [[Navier–Stokes equations|equations of motion]] in numerical simulations of the atmosphere.<ref name="Harper BAMS"/> In 1966, [[West Germany]] and the United States began producing operational forecasts based on [[primitive equations|primitive-equation models]], followed by the United Kingdom in 1972 and Australia in 1977.<ref name="Lynch JCP"/><ref name="Leslie BOM">{{cite journal|last=Leslie|first=L.M.|author2=Dietachmeyer, G.S. |title=Real-time limited area numerical weather prediction in Australia: a historical perspective|journal=Australian Meteorological Magazine|date=December 1992|volume=41|issue=SP|pages=61–77|url=http://www.bom.gov.au/amoj/docs/1992/leslie2.pdf|access-date=2011-01-03}}</ref> The development of limited area (regional) models facilitated advances in forecasting the tracks of [[tropical cyclone]]s as well as [[air quality]] in the 1970s and 1980s.<ref name="Shuman W&F">{{cite journal|last=Shuman|first=Frederick G.|author-link=Frederick Gale Shuman|title=History of Numerical Weather Prediction at the National Meteorological Center|journal=[[Weather and Forecasting]]|date=September 1989|volume=4|issue=3|pages=286–296|doi=10.1175/1520-0434(1989)004<0286:HONWPA>2.0.CO;2|bibcode=1989WtFor...4..286S|doi-access=free}}</ref><ref>{{cite book|title=Air pollution modeling and its application VIII, Volume 8|author=Steyn, D. G.|publisher=Birkhäuser|year=1991|pages=241–242|isbn=978-0-306-43828-8}}</ref> By the early 1980s models began to include the interactions of soil and vegetation with the atmosphere, which led to more realistic forecasts.<ref>{{cite journal|url=http://www.geog.ucla.edu/~yxue/pdf/1996jgr.pdf |title=Impact of vegetation properties on U. S. summer weather prediction |page=7419 |author1=Xue, Yongkang |author2=Fennessey, Michael J. |journal=[[Journal of Geophysical Research]] |volume=101 |issue=D3 |date=1996-03-20 |access-date=2011-01-06 |doi=10.1029/95JD02169 |bibcode=1996JGR...101.7419X |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100710080304/http://www.geog.ucla.edu/~yxue/pdf/1996jgr.pdf |archive-date=2010-07-10 |citeseerx=10.1.1.453.551 }}</ref>
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