Tropical cyclone forecast model: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 23:26, 3 August 2007

Revision as of 02:19, 19 August 2007

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*'''CLIPER''' (CLImatology and PERsistence) is a 3-day statistical model ('''CLIPER5''' is a 5-day version of the same model). It uses the current path of a tropical cyclone and an average of historical paths of similar cyclones to come up with a track, and is considered a "no-skill" model. Curiously, until the late 1980s, this was actually the most accurate model. Forecast skill is determined by comparing forecasts against this model.<ref name="2005_Verification"/>

*'''NHC90''' and '''NHC98'''

*'''BAM''' ([[Beta effect|Beta]] and [[Advection]]) uses horizontalvertically-averaged winds and computes trajectories provided by the GFS model to provide track forecasts. There are three forms, BAMD (BAM Deep, 850-200 hPa), BAMM (BAM Medium, 850-400 hPa) and BAMS (BAM Shallow, 850-700 hPa) that use different altitudes of wind.

*'''VICBAR''' and '''LBAR'''

*'''LBAR''' (Limited area sine transform BARotropic) is a two-dimensional track prediction model.

*'''NHCP Aviation''' primarily forecasts wind direction and speed and provides input for other models.

*'''GFDL''' ([[Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory]]) andis ana interpolatedlimited-area version,baroclinic '''GFDI'''model developed specifically for hurricane prediction. It is run four times a day (six hours apart).

*'''UKMET''' ([[United Kingdom]] [[Meteorological Office]])

*'''NOGAPS''' ([[United States Navy]] Global Atmospheric Prediction System)

*'''A98E''' is a statistical-dynamical prediction model using geopotential heights from the GFS forecast to modify the CLIPER forecast. It incorporates portions of the NHC90 and NHC98 Atlantic forecast models.

*'''GFS''' ([[National Weather Service]] [[Global Forecast System]])

*'''GFS''' ([[National Weather Service]] [[Global Forecast System]]) is the main meteorological model for the United States. The model is run four times a day (six hours apart). It is a merger and expansion of the AVN and MRF models and is extended out to 384 hours.

In [[2007]], the [[National Centers for Environmental Prediction|NCEP]] [[Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model|Hurricane-WRF]] became operational and is used to help forecast track, intensity, and rainfall from tropical cyclones.<ref>http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2885.htm</ref><ref>WRF Program Coordinator. [http://wrf-model.org/development/wexob/meetings/Monthly-PC-Report-31Oct04.pdf Monthly Report of the WRF Program Coordinator.] Retrieved on [[2007-04-10]].</ref>