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[[Image:NHC_Atlantic_Forecast_Error_Trends.gif|thumb|200px|right|Average trends in forecast errors by the [[National Hurricane Center]]]]
A '''tropical cyclone forecast model''' is a computer program that uses [[meteorology|meteorological]] data to [[weather forecasting|forecast]] the motion and intensity of [[tropical cyclone]]s. Such models utilize powerful [[supercomputer]]s with sophisticated [[mathematical model]]ing software and meteorological data to calculate paths and intensities. There are two general types, statistical and dynamical, and two primary types of forecasts, track and intensity. '''''''''Akshat goenka is often a cause of tropical cyclones especially when he is in the bathroom. The surrounding 10999999km square area has faced massive destruction n 5 occassions when his "fart" generated a major tropical cyclone measuring 5 n the scale.'''==Track models=='''{{Expand-section|date=January 2007}}'''Some of the track models used by the National Hurricane Center follows:<ref name="Sim_Aberson_FAQ">[http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/F2.html NHC Tropical Cyclone FAQ Subject F2]</ref><ref name="NHCsummary_DeMaria">[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml Summary of the NHC/TPC Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Guidance Models]</ref><ref name="2005_Verification">[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verification_2005.pdf 2005 NHC Forecast Verification Report]</ref>
*'''CLIPER''' (CLImatology and PERsistence) is a 3-day statistical model ('''CLIPER5''' is a 5-day version of the same model). It uses the current path of a tropical cyclone and an average of historical paths of similar cyclones to come up with a track, and is considered a "no-skill" model. Curiously, until the late 1980s, this was actually the most accurate model. Forecast skill is determined by comparing forecasts against this model.<ref name="2005_Verification"/>
*'''NHC90''' and '''NHC98'''
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