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[[Image:NHC_Atlantic_Forecast_Error_Trends.gif|thumb|200px|right|Average trends in forecast errors by the [[National Hurricane Center]]]]
A '''tropical cyclone forecast model''' is a computer program that uses [[meteorology|meteorological]] data to [[weather forecasting|forecast]] the motion and intensity of [[tropical cyclone]]s. Such models utilize powerful [[supercomputer]]s with sophisticated [[mathematical model]]ing software and meteorological data to calculate paths and intensities. There are two general types, statistical and dynamical, and two primary types of forecasts, track and intensity.
==Track models== {{Expand-section|date=January 2007}} Some of the track models used by the National Hurricane Center follows:<ref name="Sim_Aberson_FAQ">[http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/F2.html NHC Tropical Cyclone FAQ Subject F2]</ref><ref name="NHCsummary_DeMaria">[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml Summary of the NHC/TPC Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Guidance Models]</ref><ref name="2005_Verification">[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verification_2005.pdf 2005 NHC Forecast Verification Report]</ref> *'''CLIPER''' (CLImatology and PERsistence) is a 3-day statistical model ('''CLIPER5''' is a 5-day version of the same model). It uses the current path of a tropical cyclone and an average of historical paths of similar cyclones to come up with a track, and is considered a "no-skill" model. Curiously, until the late 1980s, this was actually the most accurate model. Forecast skill is determined by comparing forecasts against this model.<ref name="2005_Verification"/>
*'''NHC90''' and '''NHC98'''
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