Delphi method: Difference between revisions

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Short definition:The '''Delphi method''' is a systematic interactive forecasting method based on independent inputs of selected experts.

In [[1944]], General Arnold ordered the creation of the report for the [[U.S. Air Force]] on the future technological capabilities that might be used by the military. Two years later, [[Douglas Aircraft]] company started Project [[RAND]] to study "the broad subject of inter-continental warfare other than surface".

Different approaches were tried, but the shortcomings of traditional forecasting methods, such as theoretical approach, quantitative models or trend extrapolation in areas where precise scientific laws have not been established yet, quickly became apparent. To combat these shortcomings, the Delphi method was developed in RAND Corporation during the 1950-1960s by [[Olaf Helmer]] and [[Norman Dalkey]].