Content deleted Content added
m robot Adding: simple:Tropical cyclone forecast model |
Thegreatdr (talk | contribs) |
||
Line 19:
*'''HWRF''' [[Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model|Hurricane-WRF]] is a dynamical nested model that uses the NAM as a source of its background data. HWRF is intended to eventually replace the GFDL as the main nested model for hurricane prediction, but also aides in the forecasting of track, intensity, and rainfall from tropical cyclones. .<ref>http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2885.htm</ref><ref>WRF Program Coordinator. [http://wrf-model.org/development/wexob/meetings/Monthly-PC-Report-31Oct04.pdf Monthly Report of the WRF Program Coordinator.] Retrieved on [[2007-04-10]].</ref> The HWRF was introduced at the beginning of the 2007 hurricane season.
*'''FSSE''' [[Florida State Superensemble]] is a model first used operationally in the 2005 hurricane season and has shown to verify well in tropical cyclone track forecasting. Not a large amount is known about this model as the model is owned by a private company which charges for access to the data.
===Timeliness===
Some models do not produce output quickly enough to be used for the forecast cycle immediately after the model starts running. Most of the above track models (except CLIPER) require data from global weather models, which produce output about four hours after [[synoptic time]]. However, for half of their forecasts, the NHC issues forecasts only three hours after that time, so some "early" models - NHC90, BAM, and LBAR - are run using a 12-hour-old forecast for the current time. "Late" models, such as the GFS and GFDL, finish after the advisory has already been issued. These models are [[interpolation|interpolated]] to the current storm position for use in the following forecast cycle - for example, GFDI.<ref name="NHCsummary_DeMaria"/><ref name="2005_Verification"/>
| |||