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Thegreatdr (talk | contribs) →Timeliness: Added the three examples of models that are not timely enough for that cycle's package |
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*'''FSSE''' [[Florida State Superensemble]] is a model first used operationally in the 2005 hurricane season and has shown to verify well in tropical cyclone track forecasting. Not a large amount is known about this model as the model is owned by a private company which charges for access to the data.
===Timeliness===
Some models do not produce output quickly enough to be used for the forecast cycle immediately after the model starts running (e.g. HWRF, GFDL, FSSE.) Most of the above track models (except CLIPER) require data from global weather models, such as the GFS, which produce output about four hours after [[synoptic time]]. However, for half of their forecasts, the NHC issues forecasts only three hours after that time, so some "early" models - NHC90, BAM, and LBAR - are run using a 12-hour-old forecast for the current time. "Late" models, such as the GFS and GFDL, finish after the advisory has already been issued. These models are [[interpolation|interpolated]] to the current storm position for use in the following forecast cycle - for example, GFDI.<ref name="NHCsummary_DeMaria"/><ref name="2005_Verification"/>
No model is ever perfectly accurate because it is impossible to learn exactly everything about the atmosphere in a timely enough manner, and atmospheric measurements that are taken are not
Like all weather forecasts, track forecasts are more accurate in the short term than in the long term. Average errors for the [[United States]] [[National Hurricane Center]] are around 100, 200, and 300 [[nautical miles]] in 1, 2, and 3 days, respectively - the source of the [[1-2-3 rule]] - although the errors have been decreasing.
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