Delphi method: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 09:40, 5 May 2005

Revision as of 21:20, 7 July 2005

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#Anonymity of the participants

=== Structuring of information flow ===

The initial contributions from the experts are collected in the form of answers to questionnaires and their comments to these answers. The panel director controls the interactions among the participants by processing the information and filtering out irrelevant content. This avoids the negative effects of face-to-face panel discussions and solves the usual problems of group dynamics.

=== Regular feedback ===

Participants comment on their own forecasts, the responses of others and on the progress of the panel as a whole. At any moment they can revise their earlier statements. While in regular group meetings participants tend to stick to previously stated opinions and often conform too much to group leader, the Delphi method prevents it.

=== Anonymity of the participants ===

Usually all participants maintain anonymity. Their identity is not revealed even after the completion of the final report. This stops them from dominating others in the process using their authority or personality, frees them to some extent from their personal biases, minimizes the "[[bandwagon effect]]", allows them to freely express their opinions, encourages open critique and admitting errors by revising earlier judgments.

== History ==

First applications of the Delphi method were in the field of science and [[technology forecasting]]. The objective of the method was to combine expert opinions on likelihood and expected development time of the particular technology in a single indicator. One of the first such reports, prepared in 1964 by Gordon and Helmer, assessed the direction of long-term trends in science and technology development, covering such topics as scientific breakthroughs, [[population control]], [[automation]], space progress, war prevention and weapon systems.

Later the Delphi method was applied in other areas, especially those related to public policy issues, such as economic trends, health and education. It was also applied successfully and with high accuracy in business forecasting. For example in one case reported by Basu and Schroeder (1977) Delphi method predicted the sales of a new product during the first two years with accuracy of 3–4% compared with actual sales. Quantitative methods produced errors of 10–15% and traditional unstructured forecast methods of about 20%.

== Acceptance ==

But overall the track record of the Delphi method is mixed. There have been many cases when the method produced poor results. Still, some authors attribute this to poor application of the method and not to the weaknesses of the method itself. It must also be realised that in areas such as science and technology forecasting the degree of uncertainty is so great that exact and always correct predictions are impossible, so a high degree of error is to be expected.