Tropical cyclone forecast model: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 19:35, 13 January 2008

Revision as of 11:36, 18 January 2008

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No model is ever perfectly accurate because it is impossible to learn exactly everything about the atmosphere in a timely enough manner, and atmospheric measurements that are taken are not completely accurate. The use of the ensemble method of forecasting, whether it be a multi-model ensemble, or numerous ensemble members based on the global model, helps define the uncertainty and further limit errors. The forecast models are used as a tool that an experienced forecaster will use to assemble an official track forecast.

Like all weather forecasts, track forecasts are more accurate in the short term than in the long term. Average errors for the [[United States]] [[National Hurricane Center]] are around 100, 200, and {{convert|300 [[nautical miles]]|nmi|km}} in 1, 2, and 3 days, respectively - the source of the [[1-2-3 rule]] - although the errors have been decreasing.

==Intensity models==