Delphi method: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 18:39, 9 October 2003

Revision as of 19:46, 9 October 2003

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Different approaches were tried, but the shortcomings of traditional forecasting methods, such as theoretical approach, quantitative models or trend extrapolation in areas where precise scientific laws have not been established yet, quickly became apparent. To combat these shortcomings, the Delphi method was developed in RAND Corporation during the 1950-1960s by [[Olaf Helmer]] and [[Norman Dalkey]].

The name "Delphi" obviously comes from the [[Delphi Oracle of Delphi]]. The authors of the method were not happy with this name, because it implies "something oracular, something smacking a little of the occult", whereas in reality precisely the opposite is involved. The Delphi method recognizes the value of expert opinion, experience and intuition and allows using the limited information available in these forms, when full scientific knowledge is lacking.

Delphi method uses a panel of carefully selected experts who answer a series of questionnaires. Questions are usually formulated as hypothesises, and experts state the time when they think these hypothesises will be fulfilled. Each round of questioning is followed with the feedback on the preceding round of replies, usually presented anonymously. Thus the experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of the group. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer. After several rounds the process is complete and the median scores determine the final answers. From that the roadmap or timetables of future developments can be derived.