Delphi method: Difference between revisions

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==The Delphi method and consensus building==

The '''Delphi method''' has traditionally been a technique aimed at building an agreement, or [[consensus]] about an opinion or view, without necessarily having people meet face to face, such as through surveys, questionairesquestionnaires, emails etc. This technique, if used effectively, can be highly efficient and generate new knowledge.

To build consensus, the Delphi method often uses the [[Hegelian dialectic]] process of ''thesis'' (establishing an opinion or view), ''antithesis'' (conflicting opinion or view) and finally ''synthesis'' (a new agreement or consensus), with synthesis becoming the new thesis. All participants in the process shall then either change their views to align with the new thesis, or support the new thesis, to establish a new common view. The goal is a continual evolution towards 'oneness of mind', or consensus on the opinion or view.

The person co-ordinating the Delphi method can be known as a ''facilitator'', and facilitates the responses of their ''panel of experts'', who are selected for a reason, usually that they hold knowledge on an opinion or view. The facilitator sends out questionairesquestionnaires, surveys etc. and if the panel of experts accept, they follow instructions and present their views. Responses are collected and analysed, then common and conflicting viewpoints are identified. If consensus is not reached, the process continues through thesis and antithesis, to gradually work towards synthesis, and building consensus.

== The Delphi method and forecasting ==

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Traditionally the Delphi method has aimed at a consensus of the most probable future by iteration. The [http://www.is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/ch3b1.html Policy Delphi] launched by Murray Turoff instead is a decision support method aiming at structuring and discussing the diverse views of the preferred future. The Argument Delphi developed by Osmo Kuusi focuses on ongoing discussion and finding relevant arguments rather than focusing on the output. The [http://www.tukkk.fi/tutu/dpd.htm Disaggregative Policy Delphi] developed by Petri Tapio uses cluster analysis as a systematic tool to construct various scenarios of the future in the latest Delphi round. The respondent's view on the probable and the preferable future are dealt with as separate cases.

== See Alsoalso ==

[[John Brunner]]'s description of a ''Delphi pool'' in his novel [[The Shockwave Rider]]