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== Overview ==
Conventional business planning methods operate on the premise that managers can extrapolate future results from a well-understood base of information from the past. However, for new businesses and projects this way of planning often does not comply. Most of the time there is no past-knowledge and if there’s any past knowledge available, predicting the future out of it is nearly impossible. The dilemma is that corporate planning techniques often presume more knowledge than exists, leading to grave errors in managing innovation projects <ref>Christensen, C., Kaufman, S., & Shih, W. 2008. Innovation killers: how financial tools destroy your capacity to do new things. Harvard Business Review, 86(1): 98-105, 137.</ref>.
The managers’ solution to this problem is to make assumptions; their best try to predict the future. Some of the assumptions made during the planning process are very likely to come true; the outcome of others is very much uncertain, though not less important. Assumption based planning is about the identification and testing of the assumptions made in a [[business plan]], the formulation of “hedging actions” and the construction of “what-if” scenario’s.
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* [[Critical assumption planning]] (CAP) by D. Dunham & Co : Aims to help managers and entrepreneurs to maximize business development learning at least cost by means of challenging and testing assumptions.
* Assumption-based planning by [[RAND]] : Aims raising the visibility of the make-or-break uncertainties common to new ventures at the lowest possible cost by means of forcing managers to articulate what they don’t know.
* Discovery-Driven Planning by [[McGrath and MacMillan]] : aims to identify the critical assumptions underlying an organization’s thinking and operations, and then to understand which of those assumptions may become vulnerable and how <ref>McGrath, R. G. & MacMillan, I. C. 1995. Discovery Driven Planning. Harvard Business Review, 73(4): 44-54. </ref>
== Assumption based planning topics ==
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