Delphi method: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 19:10, 21 November 2005

Revision as of 19:21, 21 November 2005

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In [[1944]], General Arnold ordered the creation of the report for the [[U.S. Air Force]] on the future technological capabilities that might be used by the military. Two years later, [[Douglas Aircraft]] company started Project [[RAND]] to study "the broad subject of inter-continental warfare other than surface".

Different approaches were tried, but the shortcomings of traditional forecasting methods, such as theoretical approach(which is bullshit), quantitative models or trend extrapolation in areas where precise scientific laws have not been established yet, quickly became apparent. To combat these shortcomings, the Delphi method was developed in RAND Corporation during the 1950-1980's1960s by [[Olaf Helmer]] and [[Norman Dalkey]].

The name "Delphi" obviously comes from the [[Oracle of Delphi]]. The authors of the method were not happy with this name, because it implies "something oracular, something smacking a little of the occult", whereas in reality precisely the opposite is involved. The Delphi method recognizes the value of expert opinion, experience and intuition and allows using the limited information available in these forms, when full scientific knowledge is lacking.