Climate commitment: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 04:20, 7 May 2010

Revision as of 04:25, 7 May 2010

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* "[[transient]]" climate prediction runs in which a full ocean is used and the climate is out of balance.

Note thatThe "commitment" can apply to variables other than temperature: because of the long mixing time for heat into the deep ocean, a given surface warming commits to centuries of [[sea level rise]] from thermal expansion of the ocean. Also once a certain threshold is crossed, it is likely that a slow melting of the Greenland ice sheet will commit us to a sea level rise of 5m over millennia.

== Models ==

{{main|global climate model}}

Recent [[model (abstract)|model]]s forecast that even in the unlikely event of greenhouse gases stabilising at present levels, the earth would warm by an additional 0.5°C by 2100, a similar rise in temperature to that seen during the 20th century. As ocean waters expand in response to this warming, global [[sea level]]s would mount by about 10 centimetres during that time. These models do not take into account [[ice cap]] and [[glacier]] melting; including those effects would give a 1°C - 1.5°C estimated temperature increase.<ref>{{{{cite web |url= http://www.nature.com/news/2005/050314/full/050314-13.html |title= Oceans extend effects of climate change |author= Deirdre Lockwood |date= 2005-05-17 |work= |publisher= nature[[Nature publishingPublishing groupGroup]] |accessdate=2010-05-07}} </ref>

==History==

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* Meehl G. A., et al. Sciencexpress, 10.1126/science.1106663 (2005).

* Wigley T. M. L., et al. Sciencexpress, 110.1126/science.1103934 (2005).

<references/>

{{Global warming}}

[[Category:Climate change]]