Tropical cyclone forecast model: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 19:54, 20 February 2006

Revision as of 19:57, 20 February 2006

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*'''NOGAPS''' ([[United States Navy]] Global Atmospheric Prediction System)

TheNo abovemodel models are notis 100ever percentperfectly accurate because it is impossible to learn exactly everything about the atmosphere in a timely enough manner. Also, itand isatmospheric possiblemeasurements that inputare valuestaken are not measuredalways totally accuratelyaccurate. Thus, slightthe variationsmodels inare theseused inputsas area usedtool that an experienced forecaster will use to formassemble aan consensusofficial track forecast.

Like all weather forecasts, track predictions are more accurate in the short- term than in the long term. Average errors for the US NHC are around 100, 200, and 300 [[nautical miles]] in 1, 2, and 3 days, respectively. This is the source of the [[1-2-3 rule]].

==Intensity models==