Tropical cyclone forecast model: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 22:17, 22 February 2006

Revision as of 23:49, 22 February 2006

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No model is ever perfectly accurate because it is impossible to learn exactly everything about the atmosphere in a timely enough manner, and atmospheric measurements that are taken are not always totally accurate. Thus, the models are used as a tool that an experienced forecaster will use to assemble an official track forecast.

Like all weather forecasts, track predictions are more accurate in the short term than in the long term. Average errors for the [[United States|US]] [[National Hurricane NHCCenter]] are around 100, 200, and 300 [[nautical miles]] in 1, 2, and 3 days, respectively. This is the source of the [[1-2-3 rule]].

==Intensity models==