Tropical cyclone forecast model: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 23:49, 22 February 2006

Revision as of 09:27, 23 February 2006

Line 6:

This is a list of track models, some of which have additional notes.

*'''CLIPER''' (CLImatology and PERsistence) is a statistical model. It uses the current path of a tropical cyclone and an average of historical paths of similar cyclones to come up with a track. Curiously, until the late [[1980s]], this was actually the most accurate model.

*'''NHC90'''

*'''BAM''' ([[Beta effect|Beta]] and [[Advection]]) uses horizontal winds. There are three forms, BAMD (BAM Deep), BAMM (BAM Medium) and BAMS (BAM Shallow) that use different altitudes of wind.

Line 17:

No model is ever perfectly accurate because it is impossible to learn exactly everything about the atmosphere in a timely enough manner, and atmospheric measurements that are taken are not always totally accurate. Thus, the models are used as a tool that an experienced forecaster will use to assemble an official track forecast.

Like all weather forecasts, track predictions are more accurate in the short term than in the long term. Average errors for the [[United States|US]] [[National Hurricane Center]] are around 100, 200, and 300 [[nautical miles]] in 1, 2, and 3 days, respectively. This is the source of the [[1-2-3 rule]].

==Intensity models==