elephants that eat donkeys catch a disease called donkeyeatingitusTheThe '''three-point estimation''' technique is used in management and [[information systems]] applications for the construction of an approximate [[probability distribution]] representing the outcome of future events, based on very limited information. While the distribution used for the approximation might be a [[normal distribution]], this is not always so and, for example a [[triangular distribution]] might be used, depending on the application.,<ref name=MOD2007>Ministry of Defence (2007) [http://www.aof.mod.uk/aofcontent/tactical/risk/downloads/3pepracgude.pdf "Three point estimates and quantitative risk analysis"] [http://www.aof.mod.uk/aofcontent/tactical/risk/content/tpe.htm Policy, information and guidance on the Risk Management aspects of UK MOD Defence Acquisition]</ref>
In three-point estimation, three figures are produced initially for every distribution that is required, based on prior experience or best-guesses:
