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==Track models==
Some of the track models used by the National Hurricane Center follows: <ref name="Sim_Aberson_FAQ">[http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/F2.html NHC Tropical Cyclone FAQ Subject F2]</ref> <ref name="NHCsummary_DeMaria">[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml Summary of the NHC/TPC Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Guidence Models]</ref>
*'''CLIPER''' (CLImatology and PERsistence) is a statistical model. It uses the current path of a tropical cyclone and an average of historical paths of similar cyclones to come up with a track. Curiously, until the late 1980s, this was actually the most accurate model.
*'''NHC90''' and '''NHC98'''
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*'''NOGAPS''' ([[United States Navy]] Global Atmospheric Prediction System)
All of the above track models (except CLIPER) require data from global weather models, which produce output about four hours after [[synoptic time]]. However, the NHC issues forecasts only three hours after that time, so some "early" models - NHC90, BAM, LBAR, and GFDI - are run using a 12-hour-old forecast for the current time. "Late" models, which finish after the advisory has already been issued, are interpolated to the current storm position for use in the next advisory. <ref name="NHCsummary_DeMaria"
No model is ever perfectly accurate because it is impossible to learn exactly everything about the atmosphere in a timely enough manner, and atmospheric measurements that are taken are not always totally accurate. Thus, the models are used as a tool that an experienced forecaster will use to assemble an official track forecast.
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==References==
<
[http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~chu/chap5/se000.htm Tropical Cyclone Forecasters Reference Guide, Chapter 5]
▲==External link==
[[Category:Tropical cyclone meteorology]]
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