Tropical cyclone forecast model: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 15:42, 15 July 2006

Revision as of 08:40, 18 August 2006

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*'''GFS''' ([[National Weather Service]] Global Forecast System)

Some models do not produce output quickly enough to be used for the forecast cycle immediately after the model starts running. Most of the above track models (except CLIPER) require data from global weather models, which produce output about four hours after [[synoptic time]]. However, the NHC issues forecasts only three hours after that time, so some "early" models - NHC90, BAM, and LBAR - are run using a 12-hour-old forecast for the current time. "Late" models, such as the GFS and GFDL, finish after the advisory has already been issued. These models are [[interpolation|interpolatefinterpolated]] to the current storm position for use in the following forecast cycle - for example, GFDI. <ref name="NHCsummary_DeMaria"/> <ref name="2005_Verification"/>

No model is ever perfectly accurate because it is impossible to learn exactly everything about the atmosphere in a timely enough manner, and atmospheric measurements that are taken are not always totally accurate. Thus, the models are used as a tool that an experienced forecaster will use to assemble an official track forecast.