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'''Aggregative Contingent Estimation''' ('''ACE''')
==History==
The broad program announcement for ACE was published on June 30, 2010.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&tab=core&id=54f9f4b696ffeedf52cffc433a2fc878|title = Aggregative Contingent Estimation System|date = June 30, 2010|accessdate = May 6, 2014|publisher = [[Federal Business Opportunities]]}}</ref> ACE funded the Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES) website and interface on July 15, 2011.<ref name=gcn>{{cite web|url=http://gcn.com/articles/2011/07/15/intell-crowdsourcing-forecasting-ace.aspx|title = Intell site tests crowdsourcing's ability to predict future|last = Hickey|first = Kathleen|date = July 15, 2011|accessdate = May 6, 2014|publisher = GCN}}</ref> They funded [[The Good Judgment Project]] some time around July 2011.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://goodjudgmentproject.com/blog/?p=4|title = The idea behind the Good Judgment Project|date = July 27, 2011|accessdate = May 5, 2014|publisher = The Good Judgment Project<sup>TM</sup>}}</ref> ACE has been covered in the ''[[Washington Post]]''<ref name="washpo" /> and ''[[Wired Magazine]]''.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.wired.com/2010/04/can-algorithms-find-the-best-intelligence-analysts/|title = Can Algorithms Find the Best Intelligence Analysts?|last = Drummond|first = Katie|date = April 22, 2010|accessdate = May 6, 2014|publisher = ''[[Wired Magazine]]''}}</ref> The program was concluded by late 2015.<ref>{{Cite web|url = http://www.c4isrnet.com/story/military-tech/it/2015/09/23/iarpa-anticipating-surprise/72632204/|title = IARPA's high-stakes intelligence experiment|last = Corrin|first = Amber|date = 2015-09-23|website = C4ISR & Networks|access-date = 2016-03-31}}</ref>
==Goals and methods==
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* mathematical aggregation of judgments by many individuals, based on factors that may include: past performance, expertise, cognitive style, metaknowledge, and other attributes predictive of accuracy
* effective representation of aggregated probabilistic forecasts and their distributions.
There is a fair amount of research funded by grants made by the IARPA ACE program.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&q=%22D11PC20058+OR+D11PC20059+OR+D11PC20060+OR+D11PC20061+OR+D11PC20062%22&btnG=&as_sdt=1%2C47&as_sdtp=|title = Google Scholar listing of research funded by IARPA ACE|accessdate = May 6, 2014}}</ref>
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Data from ACE is fed into another program, called Forecasting Science and Technology (ForeST), which partners with [[SciCast]] from [[George Mason University]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/forest|title = Forecasting Science & Technology (ForeST)|last = Matheny|first = Jason|accessdate = May 6, 2014|publisher = [[Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity]]}}</ref>
==References==
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