Tropical cyclone forecast model: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 17:01, 19 December 2019

Revision as of 17:02, 19 December 2019

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[[File:Ernesto2006modelspread.png|thumb|right|250px|Significant track errors still occur on occasion, as seen in this [[Hurricane Ernesto (2006)|Ernesto (2006)]] early forecast. The [[National Hurricane Center|NHC]] official forecast is light blue, while the storm's actual track is the white line over [[Florida]].]]<!--image stacked below trend-map (same width) -->

[[File:Ernesto2006modelsprdogdogdogmputer]]s with sophisticated [[mathematical model]]ing software and meteorological data to [[numerical weather prediction|calculate future weather conditions]]. [[Statistical model]]s forecast the evolution of a tropical cyclone in a simpler manner, by extrapolating from historical datasets, and thus can be run quickly on platforms such as [[personal computer]]s. Statistical-dynamical models use aspects of both types of forecasting. Four primary types of forecasts exist for tropical cyclones: [[tropical cyclone track forecasting|track]], intensity, [[storm surge]], and [[tropical cyclone rainfall climatology|rainfall]]. Dynamical models were not developed until the 1970s and the 1980s, with earlier efforts focused on the storm surge problem.

A '''tropical cyclone forecast model''' is a computer program that uses [[Filemeteorology|meteorological]] data to [[weather forecasting|forecast]] aspects of the future state of [[tropical cyclone]]s. There are three types of models:Ernesto2006modelsprdogdogdogmputer statistical, dynamical, or combined statistical-dynamic.<ref name="NHCmodel"/> Dynamical models utilize powerful [[supercomputer]]s with sophisticated [[mathematical model]]ing software and meteorological data to [[numerical weather prediction|calculate future weather conditions]]. [[Statistical model]]s forecast the evolution of a tropical cyclone in a simpler manner, by extrapolating from historical datasets, and thus can be run quickly on platforms such as [[personal computer]]s. Statistical-dynamical models use aspects of both types of forecasting. Four primary types of forecasts exist for tropical cyclones: [[tropical cyclone track forecasting|track]], intensity, [[storm surge]], and [[tropical cyclone rainfall climatology|rainfall]]. Dynamical models were not developed until the 1970s and the 1980s, with earlier efforts focused on the storm surge problem.

Track models did not show [[forecast skill]] when compared to statistical models until the 1980s. Statistical-dynamical models were used from the 1970s into the 1990s. Early models use data from previous model runs while late models produce output after the official hurricane forecast has been sent. The use of consensus, ensemble, and superensemble forecasts lowers errors more than any individual forecast model. Both consensus and superensemble forecasts can use the guidance of global and regional models runs to improve the performance more than any of their respective components. Techniques used at the [[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]] indicate that superensemble forecasts are a very powerful tool for track forecasting.