This sandbox is in the article namespace. Either move this page into your userspace, or remove the {{User sandbox}} template. Dynamic Causal Modelling (DCM) is a methodology and software framework for specifying models of neural dynamics, estimating their parameters and comparing their evidence. It enables the interaction of neural populations (effective connectivity) to be inferred from functional neuroimaging data e.g., functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), magnetoencephalography (MEG) or electroencephalography; EEG).
Motivation
The aim of dynamic causal modeling (DCM) is to infer the causal architecture of coupled nonlinear dynamical systems using Bayesian model comparison procedure that rests on comparing models of how data were generated. Dynamic causal models are formulated in terms of nonlinear state-space models in continuous time and model the dynamics of hidden states in the nodes of a probabilistic graphical model, where conditional dependencies are parameterised in terms of directed effective connectivity. Unlike Bayesian Networks the graphs used in DCM can be cyclic, and unlike Structural Equation modelling and Granger causality, DCM does not depend on the theory of Martingales, i.e., it does not assume that random fluctuations' are serially uncorrelated.
DCM was developed for (and applied principally to) estimating coupling among brain regions and how that coupling is influenced by experimental changes (e.g., time or context). The basic idea is to construct reasonably realistic models of interacting (cortical) regions or nodes. These models are then supplemented with a forward model of how the hidden states of each node (e.g., neuronal activity) map to measured responses. This enables the best model and its parameters (i.e., effective connectivity) to be identified from observed data. The Bayesian model comparison is used to select the best model in terms of its evidence (inference on model-space), which can then be characterised in terms of its parameters (inference on parameter-space). This enables one to test hypotheses about how nodes communicate; e.g., whether activity in a given neuronal population modulates the coupling between other populations, in a task-specific fashion.
In functional neuroimaging, the data may be functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) measurements or electrophysiological (e.g., in magnetoencephalography or electroencephalography; MEG/EEG). Brain responses are evoked by known deterministic inputs (experimentally controlled stimuli) that embody designed changes in sensory stimulation or cognitive set. These experimental or exogenous variables can change hidden states in one of two ways. First, they can elicit responses through direct influences on specific network nodes. This would be appropriate, for example, in modelling sensory evoked responses in the early visual cortex. The second class of inputs exerts their effects vicariously, through a modulation of the coupling among nodes, for example, the influence of attention on the processing of sensory information. The hidden states cover any neurophysiological or biophysical variables needed to form observed outputs. These outputs are measured (hemodynamic or electromagnetic) responses over the sensors considered. Bayesian inversion furnishes the marginal likelihood (evidence) of the model and the posterior distribution of its parameters (e.g., neuronal coupling strengths). The evidence is used for Bayesian model selection (BMS) to disambiguate between competing models, while the posterior distribution of the parameters is used to characterise the model selected.
DCM for fMRI
DCM for fMRI uses a deterministic low-order approximation model ( derived using Taylor series) of neural dynamics in a network or graph of n interacting brain regions or nodes (Friston et al. 2003). The activity of each cortical region in the model is governed by single neuronal state-vectors x in time, which is given by the following bilinear differential equation:
where The bilinear model is a parsimonious low-order approximation that accounts both for endogenous and exogenous causes of system dynamics. The matrix A represents the average coupling among nodes in the absence of exogenous input This can be thought of as the latent coupling in the absence of experimental perturbations. The B matrices are effectively the change in latent coupling induced by the j-th input. They encode context-sensitive changes in A or, equivalently, the modulation of coupling by experimental manipulations. Because are second-order derivatives they are referred to as Bilinear. Finally, the matrix C embodies the influences of exogenous input that Cause perturbations of hidden states. The connectivity or coupling matrices to be estimated are are and define the functional architecture and interactions among brain regions at a neuronal level. <figref>Fig1A.png</figref> summarises this bilinear state-equation and shows the model in graphical
DCM for fMRI combines this bilinear model of neural dynamics with an empirically validated hemodynamic model that describes the transformation of neuronal activity into a BOLD response. This so-called “Balloon model” was initially formulated by (Buxton et al., 1998) and later extended (Friston et al., 2000; Stephan et al., 2007c). In the hemodynamic model, changes in neural activity elicit a vasodilatory signal that leads to increases in blood flow and subsequently to changes in blood volume and deoxyhemoglobin content and summarised schematically in <figref>Fig2A.png</figref>.
Together, the neuronal and hemodynamic state equations furnish a deterministic DCM. For any given combination of parameters and inputs the measured BOLD response is modelled as the predicted BOLD signal (the generalised convolution of inputs; ) plus a linear mixture of confounds (e.g. signal drift) and Gaussian observation error
A schematic representation of the hierarchical structure of DCM is
where u influences the dynamics of hidden (neuronal) states of the system x, through the evolution f function; x is then mapped to the predicted data y through the observation function g. The combined neural and hemodynamic parameters are estimated from the measured BOLD data, using a Bayesian scheme with empirical priors for the hemodynamic parameters and conservative shrinkage priors for the coupling parameters (see below). Once the parameters of a DCM have been estimated, the posterior distributions of the parameters can be used to test hypotheses about connection strengths (e.g., Ethofer et al., 2006; Fairhall and Ishai, 2007; Grol et al., 2007; Kumar et al., 2007; Posner et al., 2006; Stephan et al., 2006; Stephan et al., 2007b; Stephan et al., 2005).
DCM for evoked responses
DCM for evoked responses is a biologically plausible model to understand how event-related responses result from the dynamics of coupled neural populations. It rests on neural mass models, which use established connectivity rules in hierarchical brain systems to describe the dynamics of a network of coupled neuronal sources each of which is modelled using a neural mass model (David and Friston, 2003; David et al., 2005; Jansen and Rit, 1995). Neural mass model emulates the activity of a cortical area using three neuronal subpopulations, assigned to granular and agranular layers. A population of excitatory pyramidal (output) cells receive inputs from inhibitory and excitatory populations of interneurons, via intrinsic connections (which are confined to the cortical sheet). Within this model, excitatory interneurons can be regarded as spiny stellate cells found predominantly in layer four and in receipt of forward connections. Excitatory pyramidal cells and inhibitory interneurons are considered to occupy agranular layers and receive backward and lateral inputs.
To model event-related responses, the network receives exogenous inputs via input connections. These connections are exactly the same as forward connections and deliver inputs to the spiny stellate cells. In the present context, inputs model sub-cortical auditory inputs. The vector controls the influence of the input on each source. The lower, upper and leading diagonal matrices encode forward, backward and lateral connections, respectively. The DCM here is specified in terms of the state equations and a linear output equation
where represents the trans-membrane potential of pyramidal cells and is a lead field matrix coupling electrical sources to the EEG channels (Kiebel et al., 2006).
Within each subpopulation the evolution of neuronal states rests on two operators. The first transforms the average density of pre-synaptic inputs into the average postsynaptic membrane potential. This is modelled by a linear transformation with excitatory and inhibitory kernels parameterised by and control the maximum post-synaptic potential, and represent lumped rate-constants. The second operator S transforms the average potential of each subpopulation into an average firing rate. This is assumed to be an instantaneous process that follows a sigmoid function (Marreiros et al., 2008b). Interactions, among the subpopulations, depend on constants which control the strength of intrinsic connections and reflect the total number of synapses expressed by each subpopulation.
Model evidence and selection
Bayesian model selection (BMS) is a promising technique to determin the most likely among a set of competing hypotheses about the mechanisms that generated observed data. In the context of DCM, BMS is used to distinguish between different systems architectures. Model comparison and selection rests on the model evidence i.e. the probability of observing the data y under a particular model m. The model evidence is obtained by integrating out dependencies on the model parameters
In DCM, model inversion, comparison and reduction are carried out by using computationally tractable approximations to the model evidence (or the log-evidence) called the (negative) free-energy F (see equation for F below), which handles posterior and priors dependencies properly.
For a given DCM, say model m, inversion corresponds to approximating the moments of the posterior or conditional distribution given by Bayes rule
Inversion of a DCM involves minimizing the free energy, F, in order to maximize the model evidence or marginal likelihood (c.f. “type-II likelihood”; Good 1965). The posterior moments (mean and covariance) are updated iteratively using Variational Bayes under a fixed-form Laplace, (‘‘i.e.’’, Gaussian), approximation to the conditional density. This can be regarded as an Expectation-Maximization algorithm; EM (Dempster et al., 1977) that employs a local linear approximation of the predicted responses around the current conditional expectation. This Bayesian method was developed for dynamic system models based on differential equations. In contrast, conventional inversions of state space models typically use maximum likelihood methods and operate in discrete time (c.f. Valdes et al., 1999). Generalisations of this Variational (Laplace) scheme extend the scope of DCM to cover models based on stochastic differential equations and difference equations (Friston et al. 2008; Daunizeau et al. 2009a). The basic Variational scheme for DCM can be summarized as follows (where λ is the error variance and q is the conditional density):
The free-energy is the Kullback–Leibler divergence (denoted by KL), between the real and approximate conditional density minus the log-evidence. This means that when the free-energy is minimised, the discrepancy between the true and approximate conditional density is suppressed. At this point the free-energy approximates the negative log-evidence: (Friston et al., 2007; Penny et al., 2004). Model selection is based on this approximation; where the best model is characterised by the greatest log-evidence (i.e. the smallest free-energy). Pairwise model comparisons can be conveniently described by Bayes factors (Kass and Raftery, 1995):
Raftery (1995), presents an interpretation of the BF as providing weak (BF < 3), positive (3 ≤ BF < 20), strong (20 ≤ BF < 150) or very strong (BF ≥ 150) evidence for preferring one model over another. Strong evidence in favor of one model thus requires the difference in log-evidence to be three or more (Penny et al. 2004). Under flat priors on models, this corresponds to a conditional confidence that the winning model is exp(3) = 20 times more likely than the alternative. From the equations above, it can be seen that the Bayes factor is simply the exponential of the difference in log-evidences.
The search for the best model precedes (and is often more important than) inference on the parameters of the model selected. Many studies have used BMS to adjudicate among competing DCMs for fMRI (Acs and Greenlee, 2008; Allen et al., 2008; Grol et al., 2007; Heim et al., 2009; Kumar et al., 2007; Leff et al., 2008; Smith et al., 2006; Stephan et al., 2007c; Summerfield and Koechlin, 2008) and EEG data (Garrido et al., 2008; Garrido et al., 2007). This approach, to search for a single best model (amongst those deemed plausible a priori) and then proceed to inference on its parameters, is pursued most often and could be complemented with diagnostic model checking procedures as, for example, suggested by Box (1980). However, alternatives to this single-model approach exist. For example, one can partition model space and make inferences about model families (Stephan et al. 2009; Penny et al. 2010). Alternatively, one can use Bayesian model averaging, where the parameter estimates of each model considered are weighted by the posterior probability of the model (Hoeting et al. 1999; Penny et al. 2010).
Applications: fMRI
The use of DCM for fMRI is demonstrated by analysing data acquired under a study of attentional modulation during visual motion processing (Büchel and Friston, 1997). These data have been used previously to validate DCM (Friston et al., 2003) and are available from http://www.fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk/spm/data. The experimental manipulations were encoded as three exogenous inputs: A photic stimulation input indicated when dots were presented on a screen, a motion variable indicated that the dots were moving and the attention variable indicated that the subject was attending to possible velocity changes. The activity was modelled in three regions V1, V5 and superior parietal cortex (SPC).
Three different DCMs are specified, each of which embodies different assumptions about how attention modulates connectivity between V1 and V5. Model 1 assumes that attention modulates the forward connection from V1 to V5, model 2 assumes that attention modulates the backward connection from SPC to V5 and model 3 assumes attention modulates both connections. Each model assumes that the effect of motion is to modulate the connection from V1 to V5 and uses the same reciprocal hierarchical intrinsic connectivity. The models were fitted and the Bayes factors provided consistent evidence in favour of the hypothesis embodied in model 1, that attention modulates the forward connection from V1 to V5.
Note that this model does not specify the source of the attentional top-down effect. This becomes possible with nonlinear dynamic causal models (Stephan et al. 2008). Nonlinear DCM for fMRI enables one to model how activity in one population gates connection strengths among others. <figref>Fig5A.png</figref> shows an application to the previous example where parietal activity, induced by attention to motion, modulates the connection from V1 to V5.
Applications: Evoked responses
To illustrate DCM for event-related responses (ERPs) data acquired under a mismatch negativity (MMN) paradigm (http://www.fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk/spm/data) is used. In this example, various models over twelve subjects are compared. The results shown are a part of a program that considered the MMN and its underlying mechanisms (Garrido et al., 2007). Three plausible models were specified under an architecture motivated by electrophysiological and neuroimaging MMN studies (Doeller et al., 2003; Opitz et al., 2002). Each has five sources, modelled as Equivalent Current Dipole (ECDs); (Kiebel et al., 2006), over left and right primary auditory cortex (A1), left and right superior temporal gyrus (STG) and right inferior frontal gyrus (IFG). An exogenous (auditory) input enters bilaterally at A1, which are connected to their ipsilateral STG. Right STG is connected to the right IFG. Inter-hemispheric (lateral) connections are placed between left and right STG. All connections are reciprocal (i.e., connected with forward and backward connections or with bilateral connections).
Three models were tested, which differed in the connections which could show putative repetition-dependent changes, i.e., differences between listening to standard or deviant tones. Models F, B and FB allowed changes in forward, backward and both, respectively. All three models were compared against a baseline or null model, which had the same architecture but precluded any coupling changes between standard and deviant trials.
Bayesian model selection based on the increase in log-evidence over the null model was performed for all subjects. The log-evidences of the three models, relative to the null model (for each subject), reveal that they are substantially better than the null model in all subjects. In particular, the FB-model was best in seven out of eleven subjects. The sum of the log-evidences over subjects (which is equivalent to the log group Bayes factor, see below) showed that there was very strong evidence in favour of model FB at the group level.
Hierarchical model comparison
Comparison at the between-subject level has been used extensively in previous group studies using the group Bayes factor (GBF). The GBF is simply the product of Bayes factors over subjects and constitutes a fixed-effects analysis. It has been used to decide between competing DCMs for fMRI (Acs and Greenlee, 2008; Allen et al., 2008; Grol et al., 2007; Heim et al., 2009; Kumar et al., 2007; Leff et al., 2008; Smith et al., 2006; Stephan et al., 2007c; Summerfield and Koechlin, 2008) and EEG data (Garrido et al., 2008; Garrido et al., 2007).
When the functional architecture is unlikely to differ across subjects, the conventional GBF is both sufficient and appropriate. However, subjects may exhibit different models or functional architectures; for example, due to different cognitive strategies or pathology. In this case, a hierarchical random effects procedure is required (Stephan ‘‘et al.’’, 2009). This rests on treating the model as a random variable and estimating the parameters of a Dirichlet distribution describing the probabilities of all models considered. These probabilities then define a multinomial distribution over model-space, allowing one to compute how likely it is that a specific model generated the data of a randomly chosen subject (and the exceedance probability of one model is more likely than any other).
DCM developments
DCM combines a biophysical model of the hidden (latent) dynamics with a forward model that translates hidden states into predicted measurements; to furnish an explicit generative model how observed data were caused (Friston, 2009). This means the exact form of the DCM changes with each application and speaks to their progressive refinement:
Since its inception (Friston et al., 2003), a number of developments have improved and extended DCM: For fMRI, models of precise temporal sampling (Kiebel et al., 2007), multiple hidden states per region (Marreiros et al., 2008a), a refined hemodynamic model (Stephan et al., 2007c) and a nonlinear neuronal model (Stephan et al., 2008) have been introduced. DCM for EEG/MEG (David et al., 2006) has also seen rapid developments: DCM with lead-field parameterization (Kiebel et al., 2006), DCM for induced responses (Chen et al., 2008), DCM for neural-mass and mean-field models (Marreiros et al., 2009), DCM for spectral responses (Moran et al., 2009), stochastic DCMs (Daunizeau et al., 2009b) and DCM for phase-coupling (Penny et al., 2009). A review on developments for M/EEG data can be found in (Kiebel et al., 2008).
In relation to model selection, a hierarchical variational Bayesian framework (Stephan et al., 2009) accounts for random effects at the between-subjects level, e.g. when dealing with group heterogeneity or outliers. This work was extended by (Penny et al., 2010) to allow for comparisons between model families of arbitrary size and for Bayesian model averaging within model families.
Recommended reading
Friston, K., Ashburner, J., Kiebel, S., Nichols, T., Penny, W., 2006. Statistical Parametric Mapping: The Analysis of Functional Brain Images. Elsevier, London.
Friston, K., 2009. Causal modelling and brain connectivity in functional magnetic resonance imaging. PLoS Biol 7, e33.
David, O., Guillemain, I., Baillet, S., Reyt, S., Deransart, C., Segebarth, C., Depaulis, A., 2008. Identifying neural drivers with functional MRI: an electrophysiological validation. PLoS Biol 6, 2683-2697.
Penny, W.D., Stephan, K.E., Mechelli, A., Friston, K.J., 2004. Modelling functional integration: a comparison of structural equation and dynamic causal models. Neuroimage 23: S264-274.
Kiebel, S.J., Garrido, M.I., Moran, R.J., Friston, K.J., 2008. Dynamic causal modelling for EEG and MEG. Cogn Neurodyn 2, 121-136.
Stephan, K.E., Harrison, L.M., Kiebel, S.J., David, O., Penny, W.D., Friston, K.J., 2007. Dynamic causal models of neural system dynamics: current state and future extensions. J Biosci 32, 129-144.
Internal references
• Valentino Braitenberg (2007) Brain. Scholarpedia, 2(11):2918.
• Olaf Sporns (2007) Brain connectivity. Scholarpedia, 2(10):4695
• James Meiss (2007) Dynamical systems. Scholarpedia, 2(2):1629.
• Paul L. Nunez and Ramesh Srinivasan (2007) Electroencephalogram. Scholarpedia, 2(2):1348.
• William D. Penny and Karl J. Friston (2007) Functional imaging. Scholarpedia, 2(5):1478
• Seiji Ogawa and Yul-Wan Sung (2007) Functional magnetic resonance imaging. Scholarpedia, 2(10):3105.
• Rodolfo Llinas (2008) Neuron. Scholarpedia, 3(8):1490
Internal references
- Lawrence M. Ward (2008) Attention. Scholarpedia, 3(10):1538.
- Jan A. Sanders (2006) Averaging. Scholarpedia, 1(11):1760.
- David Spiegelhalter and Kenneth Rice (2009) Bayesian statistics. Scholarpedia, 4(8):5230.
- Valentino Braitenberg (2007) Brain. Scholarpedia, 2(11):2918.
- Olaf Sporns (2007) Brain connectivity. Scholarpedia, 2(10):4695.
- Olaf Sporns (2007) Complexity. Scholarpedia, 2(10):1623.
- Julia Berzhanskaya and Giorgio Ascoli (2008) Computational neuroanatomy. Scholarpedia, 3(3):1313.
- James Meiss (2007) Dynamical systems. Scholarpedia, 2(2):1629.
- Paul L. Nunez and Ramesh Srinivasan (2007) Electroencephalogram. Scholarpedia, 2(2):1348.
- Tomasz Downarowicz (2007) Entropy. Scholarpedia, 2(11):3901.
- Giovanni Gallavotti (2008) Fluctuations. Scholarpedia, 3(6):5893.
- William D. Penny and Karl J. Friston (2007) Functional imaging. Scholarpedia, 2(5):1478.
- Seiji Ogawa and Yul-Wan Sung (2007) Functional magnetic resonance imaging. Scholarpedia, 2(10):3105.
- Anil Seth (2007) Granger causality. Scholarpedia, 2(7):1667.
- Tamas Freund and Szabolcs Kali (2008) Interneurons. Scholarpedia, 3(9):4720.
- Rodolfo Llinas (2008) Neuron. Scholarpedia, 3(8):1490.
- Brian N. Pasley and Ralph D. Freeman (2008) Neurovascular coupling. Scholarpedia, 3(3):5340.
- Marco M Picchioni and Robin Murray (2008) Schizophrenia. Scholarpedia, 3(4):4132.
- David H. Terman and Eugene M. Izhikevich (2008) State space. Scholarpedia, 3(3):1924.
- Anthony T. Barker and Ian Freeston (2007) Transcranial magnetic stimulation. Scholarpedia, 2(10):2936.
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- Stephan, K.E., Marshall, J.C., Penny, W.D., Friston, K.J., Fink, G.R., 2007b. Interhemispheric integration of visual processing during task-driven lateralization. J Neurosci 27, 3512-3522.
- Stephan, K.E., Weiskopf, N., Drysdale, P.M., Robinson, P.A., Friston, K.J., 2007c. Comparing hemodynamic models with DCM. Neuroimage 38, 387-401.
- Stephan, K.E., Kasper, L., Harrison, L.M., Daunizeau, J., den Ouden, H.E., Breakspear, M., Friston, K.J., 2008. Nonlinear dynamic causal models for fMRI. Neuroimage 42, 649-662.
- Stephan, K.E., Penny, W.D., Daunizeau, J., Moran, R.J., Friston, K.J., 2009. Bayesian model selection for group studies. Neuroimage 46: 1004-1017.
- Stephan, K.E., Penny, W.D., Moran, R.J., Den Ouden, H.E., Daunizeau, J., Friston, K.J., 2010. Ten simple rules for dynamic causal modelling. Neuroimage 49: 3099-3109.
- Summerfield, C., Koechlin, E., 2008. A neural representation of prior information during perceptual inference. Neuron 59, 336-347.
External links
http://www.fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk/spm/
http://www.fmrib.ox.ac.uk/fsl/
http://www.sccn.ucsd.edu/eeglab/
http://afni.nimh.nih.gov/afni/
http://www.humanbrainmapping.org/
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/622925/description#description
See also
Computational Neuroanatomy, Event-Related Brain Dynamics, fMRI, MEG, MRI, Models of Neurons, Neurovascular Coupling, Neural Networks, Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation