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2005 New Zealand general election

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Results on Wikinews [1]

The 2005 New Zealand general election took place on 17 September 2005. On election night, with 94 percent of the vote counted, the Labour Party of Helen Clark seemed best placed to form a government. Although the opposition National Party of Dr Don Brash had made the greatest gains, these were mainly at the expense of minor parties. All the existing minor parties lost seats, with only the new Māori Party making gains.

This was the first election in New Zealand where a party won more constiutency seats that it was entitled to according to its proportion of the party vote. The result of this was an overhang of 2 seats, increasing the size of Parliament to 122 MPs.

Interim summary of results

Party Votes % Change Local Seats List Seats Total Seats
Labour Party 774,284 40.4 (-01.0) 31 19 50 -2
National Party 767,382 40.0 (+18.9) 31 18 49 22
New Zealand First Party 112,041 05.8 (-04.8) - 7 7 -6
Green Party 98,844 05.1 (-01.4) - 6 6 -2
Mâori Party 36,018 01.9 4 - 4
United Future New Zealand 52,853 02.8 (-04.0) 1 2 3 -6
ACT New Zealand 29,059 01.5 (-05.6) 1 1 2 -7
Jim Anderton's Progressive 23,405 01.2 (-00.5) 1 - 1 -1
Others 52,557 02.7 - - -
Total 1,946,443 69 53 122

Labour is assured of the support of the Greens and Jim Anderton, making a total of 57 seats. To secure the necessary 62 seats, Labour will need to gain the support of some of the minor parties. Both New Zealand First and United Future have said they will support whichever major party polls the most votes, which on current figures is Labour, but United Future has also said it will not support a government in which Green MPs hold cabinet positions. This suggests a minority Labour-Progressive government as the most acceptable outcome.

Another possible scenario, if Nandor Tanczos of the Green Party wins a seat on special votes, is that a coalition could be formed made up of Labour, the Greens, Anderton and the Mâori Party, locking out United Future and NZ First.

For National to form a government, it would need the support of all the minor parties except the Greens and Jim Anderton. It seems unlikely that the Mâori Party would support a National government.

Background

 
Election billboards advertise the parties and candidates standing nationwide and in each electorate

The 2002 election saw the governing Labour Party retain office. However, its junior coalition partner, the Alliance, collapsed, leaving Labour to form a coalition with the new Progressive Coalition, formed by former Alliance leader Jim Anderton. The coalition then obtained an agreement of support ("confidence and supply") from United Future, enabling it to form a stable minority government. The National Party, Labour's main opponents, suffered a considerable defeat, winning only 21% of the vote.

The 2002 election result further strengthened the impression that the traditional two-party system had broken down. Beginning with the first New Zealand election under the MMP electoral system in 1996, Labour and National found their traditional dominance gone, and needed to ally themselves with smaller parties. The 2002 election saw the combined strength of the two traditionally "major" parties drop below two-thirds of the seats in Parliament.

The collapse of National's vote led to the replacement of leader Bill English with parliamentary newcomer Don Brash on 28 October 2003. Brash began an aggressive campaign against the Labour-dominated government. A major boost to this campaign came with his "Orewa speech" (27 January 2004), in which he attacked the Labour-dominated government for giving "special treatment" to the Māori population, particularly over the foreshore and seabed controversy. This resulted in a surge of support for the National Party, although most polls indicate that this subsequently subsided. National also announced it would not stand candidates in the Māori seats, with some smaller parties following suit.

The foreshore and seabed controversy also resulted in the creation of the new Māori Party. The Māori Party hopes to break Labour's traditional (and current) dominance in the Māori seats, as New Zealand First did in the 1996 election.

United Future contested the 2005 election in partnership with Outdoor Recreation New Zealand, although the two parties did not merge. Outdoor Recreation New Zealand gained 1.28% of the party vote in 2002, below the 5% MMP threshold.

Some observers believe that the 2005 election will see a return to "two-party politics", citing evidence that National's popularity is coming directly from smaller parties. (One such smaller party, ACT, has its future in doubt should it fail to win a seat in 2005 or get above the threshold.) Other commentators have dismissed the idea of a return to two dominant parties: they point to evidence that smaller parties become more popular in the course of official election campaigns.

A number of minor parties contested the election. These included Destiny New Zealand (the political branch of the Destiny Church) and the Direct Democracy Party. None has any significant chance of entering Parliament as all consistently poll under 1%.

Overhang seats appear possible after the election, which would lead to Parliament having more than 120 MPs. If Jim Anderton wins his Wigram electorate again but the Progressive Party get less than the approximately 0.5% that would qualify them for one seat, then Anderton's seat becomes an overhang seat. This led some of the party's supporters to call for its voters to give their party vote to another party, such as Labour, reasoning that the party seems unlikely to reach the approximately 1.6% needed to qualify for two seats, and that an overhang would increase the strength of a potential coalition. Similarly, the Māori Party may generate overhang seats: for example, if they receive less than 1% of the party vote, entitling them to one seat, but win three electorate seats, the extra two seats become "overhang" seats. Allocating the remaining 120 seats would take place in the usual proportional way, with a threshold of 5% or one electorate seat applying.

On 25 July 2005, Prime Minister Helen Clark called the election for 17 September.

Issues

The media and some of the parties have pursued their usual search for "key issues". Particular importance appears to attach to a few areas:

Other traditionally important public issues, like healthcare or education spending have been little mentioned in the media.

Coalition

Some of the parties have stated their preferred coalition partner.

  • Act: National
  • Greens: Labour
  • Labour: Progressive, Greens, United Future, (Māori possible but described as "last cab off the rank" [2])
  • Māori: Initially, the Māori Party said it would definitely not support National, with support for other parties to be decided by members after the election. [3]. On 16 September, Tariana Turia said the party would talk to either Helen Clark or Don Brash about support after the election. [4].
  • National: Act, NZ First or United Future (Māori not ruled out but "very unlikely")
  • NZ First: No one, but would offer support on confidence and supply issues (or an agreement to abstain from such votes) to either major party (providing that the government didn't include ACT or the Greens). [5], [6]
  • Progressive: Labour
  • United Future: Whichever party wins the greatest number of seats (i.e., Labour or National) unless the party has a formal coalition with The Greens

Polls

A series of opinion polls published in June 2005 indicated that the National Party had moved ahead of Labour for the first time since June 2004. Commentators have speculated that a prominent billboard campaign may have contributed to this. Others say the National party has peaked too early given that the election will take place on September 17. The polls released throughout July showed once more an upward trend for Labour, with Labour polling about 6% above National.

The NZ Chinese Herald did a survey of 599 registered Chinese voters, producing results of:

  • Labour 43%
  • National 23%
  • Act 21%
  • Greens 2.8%
  • NZ First 0.8%
  • others/undecided/abstain 9.4%.

NZ First presumably received a low rating due to its relatively extreme anti-immigration policy. Act received a rating ten times higher than its general-population average, possibly due to its low-tax policy and its Chinese MP Kenneth Wang, who has a high profile in the "Asian" community.

The release by the National Party of a series of tax reform proposals on 22 August 2005 increased its ratings in the polls. These polls cannot be directly compared to each other.

Poll Date Labour National NZ First Greens
One News Colmar Brunton 29 August 43% 40% 5% 7%
3 News TNS 1 September 39% 41% 6% 6%
Herald DigiPoll 2 September 43.4% 39.1% 6.6% 5%
Fairfax NZ/AcNeilson 3 September 41% 44% <5% 5%

The Progressives can be expected to win one seat but are not likely to get additional list MPs, United Future will likely win one seat and may get an extra list MP, and the Māori Party will probably win several seats. Act New Zealand does not appear likely to be represented in the next parliament, unless National encourages voters in the Epsom electorate to vote for its leader Rodney Hide. National has not given any such encouragement to date.

The Greens will have about seven MPs if their vote doesn't fall below 5%. New Zealand First similarly will get about seven MPs if they get either 5% of the vote or Winston Peters wins his seat in Tauranga. On current polling, both these parties are in a precarious position.

On the basis of these four polls, and assuming both the Greens and New Zealand First get parliamentary seats, a Labour/Green/Progressive coalition might have a narrow majority, or might require a "confidence and supply" arrangement with the Māori Party or New Zealand First. A National / New Zealand First coalition would not achive a majority and even with United Future added the formation of a government led by National looks difficult at these poll levels. If the Greens do not get into Parliament, a National/New Zealand First coalition or Labour/New Zealand First coalition could govern, although both major parties have said they would prefer not to enter a coalition with New Zealand First. If neither the Greens nor New Zealand First get into Parliament, then the major party with the higher vote may have an absolute majority, or may need the support of one of the smaller parties, most likely United Future. Neither of the major parties is likely to seek a coalition with the Māori Party.

Poll Date Labour National NZ First Greens
One News Colmar Brunton 4 September 38% 46% 4.6% 6%
3 News TNS 7 September 45% 36% 5% 7%
Herald Digipoll 8 September 40.6% 40.1% 7.1% 5.6%
Herald Digipoll 11 September 42.1% 38.5% 5% 6%
ACNielsen-Sunday Star-Times 11 September 37% 44% 5% 6%
One News Colmar Brunton 11 September 39% 41% 6% 6%
Fairfax ACNielsen 14 September 37% 43% 7% 6%
3 News TNS 15 September 40.5% 38.7% 6.8% 6.9%
TVNZ Colmar Brunton 15 September 38% 41% 5.5% 5.1%
Herald Digipoll 16 September 44.6% 37.4% 4.5% 4.6 %

The significant difference between most of these polls cannot be explained by any political event over the period between them. They show a volatility in the electorate or a flaw in the polling methods. In the later polls, the issue of National knowledge of Exclusive Brethren pamphlets appears not to have reduced party support.

After the first two of these polls were taken, New Zealand First announced that it would offer its support on supply and confidence to the higher-polling major party, but would not go into coalition. This allows the higher polling of Labour or National to form a government. In National's case, it will require this support from New Zealand First should the final vote resemble any of the poll results above, and might also require United Future support. In those polls favouring Labour, it may be able to govern in a coalition with the Progressives and Greens, or it may also require support from New Zealand First.

The volatility in the polls means that neither major party can count on a victory, and the New Zealand First and Green parties cannot be sure of reaching the five percent threshold to get into parliament. This is the most closely fought election since 1996.

Candidates

For lists of candidates in the 2005 election see:

Voting

Postal voting for New Zealanders abroad began on 31 August. Ballot voting was held on September 17, from 9AM to 7PM. A definite result is likely within 4-5 hours of counting.

Funding

New Zealand operates on a system whereby the Electoral Commission allocates funding for television and radio advertising. Parties must use their own money for all other forms of advertising, but may not use any of their own money for television or radio advertising.

Party Funding
Labour $1,100,000
National $900,000
ACT $200,000
Greens $200,000
NZ First $200,000
United Future $200,000
Māori Party $125,000
Progressives $75,000
Alliance $20,000
Christian Heritage NZ $20,000
Destiny NZ $20,000
Libertarianz $20,000
99 MP Party* $10,000
Beneficiaries Party* $10,000
Democrats $10,000
National Front* $10,000
New Zealand F.R.P.P.* $10,000
Patriot Party* $10,000
Republic Aotearoa New Zealand Party* $10,000
The Republic of New Zealand* $10,000

*Must register for funding
Source: Electoral Commission

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