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2007 Pacific hurricane season

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Template:Ongoing weather Template:Infobox hurricane season active The 2007 Pacific hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. It officially started on May 15, 2007 in the eastern Pacific, designated as the area east of 140°W; on June 1 2007 in the central Pacific, which is between the International Date Line and 140°W; and will last until November 30, 2007. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Pacific basin.

Seasonal forecasts

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2007 season
for the Eastern North Pacific
Source Date Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
NOAA Average[1] 15.3 8.8 4.2
NOAA 22 May 2007 12–16 6–9 2–4
Actual activity 3 1 —

On May 22, 2007, NOAA released their forecast for the 2007 Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons. They predicted a below-normal level of activity in the Eastern Pacific, with 12 to 16 named storms, of which 6 to 9 were expected to become hurricanes, and 2 to 4 expected to become major hurricanes.[2]

The Central Pacific basin was also expected to be below average, with only two to three tropical cyclones expected to form or cross into the area.[3]

Storms

Tropical Storm Alvin

  
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;

A nearly-stationary low pressure area developed about 550 miles (885 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico on May 24.[4] Upper-level winds favored development, and the system slowly became better organized.[5] By early on May 26, the system had developed a well-defined circulation, though associated convection had become limited.[6] Later that day convection increased significantly over the center, and early on May 27 Tropical Depression One-E formed 345 mi (555 km) south of the tip of Baja California.[7] Located to the east of a ridge and to the west of a trough, the depression tracked slowly westward through an area of weak steering flow.[8]

Due to unfavorable thermodynamics of the environment, the depression failed to immediately strengthen; the convection weakened, leaving the center located well to the northeast of the poorly-organized convective areas.[9] Inflow from the south was cut off by another area of disturbed weather to its southeast, and by late on May 27 one forecaster indicated there was inadequate convection to qualify the system as a tropical depression.[10] Convection again re-developed early on May 28,[11] and by later in the day remained vigorous but limited to the southwestern quadrant of the circulation.[12] It consolidated further and strengthened into a tropical storm early on May 29.[13] By later in the day, the convection again diminished, and the center of Alvin became difficult to locate on satellite imagery.[14] Alvin was thus downgraded a tropical depression after becoming less organised on May 30.[15] On May 31, Alvin lost all deep convection.[16] Tropical Depression Alvin degenerated into a remnant low on June 1.[7]

Tropical Storm Barbara

  
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;
Main article: Tropical Storm Barbara (2007)

On May 27, an area of disorganized convection extended southwestward from the Gulf of Tehuantepec.[17] On May 28, a small low pressure area developed within the system,[18] and it gradually became better organized as it drifted northward. Banding features developed in the eastern semicircle as the circulation became better defined, and late on May 29 the National Hurricane Center classified the system as Tropical Depression Two-E while it was located about 235 miles (380 km) southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Upon becoming a tropical cyclone, the depression was stationary in an area with warm sea surface temperatures, very light wind shear, and favorable upper-level conditions.[19]

It became more organised on satellite imagery on May 30, and was upgraded to a tropical storm, marking only the third time that there had been two named storms in May, after 1956 and 1984.[20] It tracked slowly southeastward for the first few days, before losing much organisation overnight May 31, leading to the comment in a forecast that Barbara could dissipate later that day.[21] It managed to re-consolidate, however, and regained tropical storm intensity on June 1, when tropical storm watches were put into place. Barbara made landfall near the Mexico-Guatemala border on June 2.

Tropical Depression Three-E

  
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;

On the evening of June 9, the National Hurricane Center first mentioned the existence of a large, disorganized area of low pressure, which was located a few hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, with limited shower activity.[22] The associated thunderstorms gained organization overnight, and on June 10 the NHC first mentioned the possibility of some slow development of the system.[23] Despite little change in its structure and organization during day, environmental conditions were positive for tropical cyclone formation.[24] The disturbance finally consolidated and became a tropical depression, the third of the season, on June 11, about 465 miles (745 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.[25] However, the depression soon entered an environment of stable air and cooler sea surface temperatures and gradually weakened over the next two days. The NHC issued its last advisory early on June 13 after the system lost most of its convection.

Tropical Depression Four-E

  
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;

On July 9, an area of convection developed about 725 miles (1170 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico; conditions favored slow development,[26] and it slowly became better organized as it tracked steadily westward.[27] A well-defined low pressure area developed within the system, and at 2100 UTC on July 9 the National Hurricane Center classified it as Tropical Depression Four-E after deep convection was maintained near its low-level circulation. Upon becoming a tropical cyclone, the depression was poorly organized,[28] and by early on July 10 the convection greatly diminished near the ill-defined center of circulation.[29] Later that day, deep convection redeveloped despite detrimental atmospheric and oceanic conditions,[30] though convection again deteriorated later while the winds decreased.[31] After continued weakening the National Hurricane Center issued the final advisory on the system early on July 11.[32]


Tropical Depression Five-E

  
DurationUnknown – Unknown
Peak intensityWinds not specified;

Early on July 11, just as Tropical Depression Four-E had degenerated into a remnant low, an area of disturbed weather formed around 350 miles (560 km) south of Acapulco. The National Hurricane Center noted that there was potential for further development,[33] but conditions were not favorable for development in the short-term, and the disturbance remained poorly consolidated.[34] However, deep convection became more concentrated on July 12,[35] and on July 14 Dvorak technique classifications on the disturbance reached high-end tropical depression to low-end tropical storm strength. Based on this, the National Hurricane Center upgraded it to Tropical Depression Five-E at 1500 UTC.[36] The depression moved west-northwestward and quickly encountered cool sea surface temperatures, increasing wind shear, and outflow from Tropical Storm Cosme. The NHC issued its last advisory late on July 15 after the circulation had become ill-defined and the depression had lost most of its deep convection.[37]

Hurricane Cosme

Hurricane Cosme 
Current storm status
Tropical depression (1-min mean)
 
Satellite image
  
Forecast map
As of:5 a.m. HST (1500 UTC) July 21
Location:16.1°N 158.3°W ± 15 nm
About 325 miles (525 km) SW of Hilo, Hawaii
About 350 miles (565 km) S of Honolulu, Hawaii
Sustained winds:30 knots | 35 mph | 55 km/h (1-min mean)
gusting to 40 knots | 45 mph | 75 km/h
Pressure:1010 mbar (hPa; 29.83 inHg)
Movement:W at 17 kt | 20 mph | 31 km/h
See more detailed information.

Two hours after Tropical Depression Five-E was classified, a disturbed area of weather about halfway between Mexico and the Hawaiian islands acquired a surface circulation and sufficient deep convection for the National Hurricane Center to designate it as a tropical depression.[38] Gradually, the depression became more organized and its circulation became better defined. The NHC upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Cosme on July 15 after analysis with the Dvorak technique estimated that the system had tropical storm force winds.[39]

On July 16 it strengthened to become the first hurricane of the season[40], but shortly after that cooler waters and shearing winds initiated a rapid weakening. However, convection made a comeback and Cosme held on to minimal tropical storm strength for over a day, before finally weakening to a depression as it crossed into the Central Pacific. Cosme continued on a west-northwesterly track, moving closer to the Big Island of Hawaii. It passed about 185 miles (295 km) south of the Big Island on July 21 local time, bringing gusts of 30 to 35 knots (35 to 40 mph, 55 to 65 km/h) and heavy rain.[41]

Current storm information

As of 5 a.m. HST (1500 UTC) July 21, the center of Tropical Depression Cosme is estimated to be located within 15 nm of 16.1°N 158.3°W, about 325 miles (525 km) southwest of Hilo, Hawaii or about 350 miles (565 km) south of Honolulu, Hawaii. Tropical Depression Cosme has maximum sustained winds of 30 kt (35 mph, 55 km/h), with higher gusts. It has a minimum central pressure of 1010 mbar (hPa; 29.83 inches), and is moving west at 17 kt (20 mph, 31 km/h).

Tropical Depression Seven-E

Tropical Depression Seven-E 
Current storm status
Tropical depression (1-min mean)
 
Satellite image
As of:8 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time July 21 (0300 UTC July 22)
Location:12.7°N 105.2°W ± 60 nm
Sustained winds:25 kt | 30 mph | 45 km/h (1-min mean)
gusting to 35 kt | 40 mph | 55 km/h
Pressure:1008 mbar (hPa) | 29.77 inHg
Movement:WNW at 12 kt | 14 mph | 22 km/h
See more detailed information.

Current storm information

As of 8 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time July 21 (0300 UTC July 22), the National Hurricane Center reports Tropical Depression Seven-E to be located near 12.7°N 105.2°W. The system has maximum 1-minute sustained winds of 25 kt (45 km/h, 30 mph) with higher gusts. It has a minimum central pressure of 1008 hPa (29.77 inHg) and is moving northwest at 12 kt (22 km/h, 14 mph).


Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Rating

ACE (104kt2) (Source) — Storm:
1 2.73 Cosme 3 0.613 Alvin
2 1.82 Barbara    
Total: 5.17

The table on the right shows the ACE for each storm in the season. ACE is, broadly speaking, a measure of the power of the hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have high ACEs. ACE is only calculated for full advisories on tropical systems at or exceeding 34 knots (39 mph, 63 km/h) or tropical storm strength.


Timeline of recent events

Main article: Timeline of the 2007 Pacific hurricane season

July

July 14
  • 8 a.m. PDT (1500 UTC) - Tropical Depression Five-E forms a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
  • 10 a.m. PDT (1700 UTC) - Tropical Depression Six-E forms about halfway between Mexico and the Hawaiian islands.
July 15
  • 2 p.m. PDT (2100 UTC) - Tropical Depression Six-E strengthens into Tropical Storm Cosme.
  • 8 p.m. PDT (0300 UTC July 16) - Tropical Depression Five-E degenerates into a remnant low.
July 16
  • 2 p.m. PDT (2100 UTC) - Tropical Storm Cosme strengthens into Hurricane Cosme.
July 17
  • 2 a.m. PDT (0900 UTC) - Hurricane Cosme is downgraded to a tropical storm.
July 18
  • c. 2 p.m. PDT (11 a.m. HST, 2100 UTC) - Tropical Storm Cosme is downgraded to a tropical depression as it crosses the 140°W boundary and moves into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility.

Storm names

The following names will be used for named storms that form in the northeast Pacific in 2007. This is the same list that was used in the 2001 season, except for Alvin, which replaced Adolph, which was retired due to political sensitivities. The name Alvin was used for a storm for the first time this year. Storms that form in the central Pacific are given names from a sequential list; if any are used, they will be mentioned separately.

  • Alvin
  • Barbara
  • Cosme (active)
  • Dalila (unused)
  • Erick (unused)
  • Flossie (unused)
  • Gil (unused)
  • Henriette (unused)
  • Ivo (unused)
  • Juliette (unused)
  • Kiko (unused)
  • Lorena (unused)
  • Manuel (unused)
  • Narda (unused)
  • Octave (unused)
  • Priscilla (unused)
  • Raymond (unused)
  • Sonia (unused)
  • Tico (unused)
  • Velma (unused)
  • Wallis (unused)
  • Xina (unused)
  • York (unused)
  • Zelda (unused)

For the central Pacific Ocean, four consecutive lists are used, with the names used sequentially until exhausted, rather than until the end of the year, due to the low number of storms each year. The next name used from the Central Pacific list will be Kika.

Retired names, if any, will be announced by the WMO in the spring of 2008.

See also

Template:Tcportal

References

  1. ^ Climate Prediction Center, NOAA (2006-05-22). "Background Information: East Pacific Hurricane Season". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 2007-05-22. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  2. ^ Climate Prediction Center, NOAA (2007-05-22). "NOAA: 2007 Tropical Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Outlook". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 2007-05-22. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  3. ^ Central Pacific Hurricane Center, NOAA (2007-05-22). "NOAA Announces Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook" (PDF). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved 2007-05-22. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |year= (help)CS1 maint: year (link)
  4. ^ Brown, Daniel (2007). "May 24 Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-05-26.
  5. ^ Rhome, Jamie (2007). "May 25 Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-05-26.
  6. ^ Rhome, Jamie (2007). "May 26 Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-05-26.
  7. ^ a b Lixion A. Avila (2007-07-05). "Tropical Cyclone Report: Tropical Storm Alvin" (PDF). National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-07-06. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  8. ^ Beven (2007). "Tropical Depression One-E Discussion One". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-05-29.
  9. ^ Franklin, James (2007). "Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Three". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-05-27.
  10. ^ Franklin, James (2007). "Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Four". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-05-27.
  11. ^ Knabb, Richard (2007). "Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Five". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-05-27.
  12. ^ Franklin, James (2007). "Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Seven". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-05-27.
  13. ^ Knabb (2007). "Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Nine". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-05-28.
  14. ^ Mainelli (2007). "Tropical Storm Alvin Discussion Twelve". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-05-29.
  15. ^ Rhome, Jamie (2007). "Tropical Depression Alvin Discussion Fourteen". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-05-30.
  16. ^ Blake (2007). "Tropical Depression Alvin Discussion Nineteen". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-05-31.
  17. ^ Franklin (2007). "May 27 Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-05-29.
  18. ^ Franklin (2007). "May 28 Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-05-29.
  19. ^ Franklin (2007). "Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion One". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-05-29.
  20. ^ Franklin (2007). "Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Four". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-05-30.
  21. ^ Franklin, James (2007). "Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Eight". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-05-31.
  22. ^ ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/Outlook-P/2007061003.ABPZ20
  23. ^ ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/Outlook-P/2007061010.ABPZ20
  24. ^ ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/Outlook-P/2007061103.ABPZ20
  25. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/text/DSAEP/DSAEP.200706111507.txt
  26. ^ Brown (2007). "July 6 Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-07-09.
  27. ^ Avila (2007). "July 7 Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-07-09.
  28. ^ Franklin (2007). "Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion One". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-07-09.
  29. ^ Blake (2007). "Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Two". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-07-09.
  30. ^ Mainelli (2007). "Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Four". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-07-10.
  31. ^ Mainelli (2007). "Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Five". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-07-10.
  32. ^ KNABB/BROWN (2007). "Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Six". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-07-09.
  33. ^ Avila, Lixion (2007-07-11). "Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-07-14. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  34. ^ Franklin, James and Brown, Daniel (2007-07-11). "Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-07-14. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  35. ^ Franklin, James and Brown, Daniel (2007-07-12). "Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-07-14. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  36. ^ Mainelli, Michelle (2007-07-14). "Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-07-14. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  37. ^ Roberts/Beven (2007-07-15). "Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 7". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-07-16. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  38. ^ Avila, Lixion (2007-07-14). "Tropical Depression Six-E Special Discussion Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-07-16. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  39. ^ Mainelli, Michelle (2007-07-15). "Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 6". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-07-16. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  40. ^ Mainelli, Michelle (2007-07-16). "Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 10". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2007-07-17. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  41. ^ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/pages/prod.php?file=/cphc/tcpages/archive/2007/TCDCP1.EP062007.28.0707210852
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