The Conference Board Leading Economic Index is an American economic leading indicator intended to forecast future economic activity. It is calculated by The Conference Board, a non-governmental organization, which determines the value of the index from the values of ten key variables. These variables have historically turned downward before a recession and upward before an expansion. The single index value composed from these ten variables has generally proved capable of predicting recessions over the past 50 years.
Recently other sources of leading indicators have been developed in attempts to provide even more timely data. One example which deals only with the consumer portion of the U. S. economy has been constructed by the Consumer Metrics Institute and includes daily indexes of consumer activities in several segments of that economy (see Consumer Leading Indicators).
See also
External links
- The Conference Board's Global Business Cycle Indicators
- OECD leading indicator statistics
- Consumer Leading Indicators - Consumer Metrics Institute
- Floyd Norris - New York Times Piece
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