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List of states with nuclear weapons

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There are currently five states considered to be "nuclear weapons states", an internationally recognized status conferred by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). In order of acquisition of nuclear weapons these are: the United States of America, Russia (formerly the Soviet Union), the United Kingdom, France, and the People's Republic of China. Since the formulation of the NPT, two non-signatory states of the NPT have conducted nuclear tests—India and Pakistan. Israel is also strongly suspected to have an arsenal of nuclear weapons though it has never confirmed or denied this, and there have been reports that over 100 nuclear weapons might be in its inventory. This status is not formally recognised by international bodies; none of these countries is currently signatories of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. South Africa was once a nuclear weapons state but has since destroyed its arsenal. North Korea has publicly declared itself to possess nuclear weapons though it has not conducted any confirmed tests and its ultimate status is still unknown. Iran has been accused by Western nations of attempting to develop uranium enrichment technology for weapons purposes.

Estimated worldwide nuclear stockpiles

The following is a list of nations that have admitted the possession of nuclear weapons, the approximate number of warheads under their control in 2002, and the year they tested their first weapon. This list is informally known in global politics as the "Nuclear Club". Note that with the exception of Russia and the United States (which have subjected their nuclear forces to independent verification under various treaties) these figures are estimates, in some cases quite unreliable estimates. Also, these figures represent total warheads possessed, rather than deployed. In particular, under the SORT treaty thousands of Russian and US nuclear warheads are in inactive stockpiles awaiting processing. The contained radioactive fuel can then be recycled for use in nuclear reactors that drive nuclear power plants and some military submarines and warships.

From a high of 65,000 active weapons in 1985, there were about 20,000 active nuclear weapons in the world in 2002. Many of the "decommissioned" weapons were simply stored or partially dismantled, not destroyed.[1]

 
World map with nuclear weapons development status represented by color. Red: Five "nuclear weapons states" from the NPT. Dark orange: Other known nuclear powers. Light orange: States suspected of having possession of, or suspected of being in the process of developing, nuclear weapons. Purple: States which at one point had nuclear weapons and/or nuclear weapons research programs.
Declared nuclear weapons states[2]
Country Warheads (est.) Year of first test
  United States 10,656 1945 ("Trinity")
  Russia (formerly the Soviet Union) ~10,000[3] 1949 ("RDS-1")
  United Kingdom 200 1952 ("Hurricane")
  France 350 1960 ("Gerboise Bleue")
  People's Republic of China 400[4] 1964 ("596")
  India 60-90[5] 1974 ("Smiling Buddha")
  Pakistan 28-48[6] 1998 ("Chagai-I")
  North Korea 0-18[7] none [8]

States that have tested a nuclear weapon

 
An early stage in the "Trinity" fireball.
  •   The USSR tested its first nuclear weapon ("Joe-1") in 1949, in a crash project developed partially with espionage obtained during and after World War II (see: Soviet atomic bomb project). The direct motivation for their weapons development was the development of a balance of power during the Cold War. It tested a primitive hydrogen bomb in 1953 ("Joe-4") and a megaton-range hydrogen bomb in 1955 ("RDS-37"). After its dissolution in 1991, its weapons entered officially into the possession of   Russia.
  •   The United Kingdom tested its first nuclear weapon ("Hurricane") in 1952, drawing largely on data gained while collaborating with the United States during the Manhattan Project. Its program was motivated to have an independent deterrence against the USSR, while also remaining relevant in Cold War Europe. It tested its first hydrogen bomb in 1957.
  •   France tested its first nuclear weapon in 1960, also as an independent deterrence and to retain perceived Cold War relevance (see: Force de frappe). It tested its first hydrogen bomb in 1968.
  •   The People's Republic of China tested its first nuclear weapon in 1964, much to the surprise of Western intelligence agencies. It had long sought assistance in becoming a nuclear power from an uneasy USSR, but assistance stopped after the Sino-Soviet split and the weapon was developed as a deterrent against both the USA and the USSR. It tested its first hydrogen bomb in 1967. The country is currently thought to have had a stockpile of 400 warheads since the early 1980s, though with considerably fewer than this actually deployed.[9]
 
An Indian Agni-II intermediate range ballistic missile displayed at the Republic Day Parade 2004. (Photo: Antônio Milena/ABr)
  •   India tested a "peaceful nuclear device", as it was described by their government, in 1974 ("Smiling Buddha"), the first test developed after the creation of the NPT, and created new questions about how civilian nuclear technology could be diverted secretly to weapons purposes (dual-use technology). It appears to have been primarily motivated as a deterrent against China and had been developed in collaboration with U.S.S.R . It tested weaponized nuclear warheads in 1998 ("Operation Shakti"), and also claimed to have tested a hydrogen bomb (though the truth of this is debated). In July 2005, it was officially recognized by the United States as a "responsible nuclear" state and agreed to full nuclear cooperation between the two nations. This is seen as an "official" entry into the nuclear club of the above nations.
  •   Pakistan covertly developed its nuclear weapons over many decades, with active Chinese assistance, beginning in the late 1970s, and tested its first fission devices in 1998. The main reason as to why Pakistan began its nuclear development programs was in response to India's so called "peaceful nuclear device" the "Smilling Buddha", Pakistan fearing for its national security began its nuclear development projects and by the 1980s it was suspected that Pakistan had successfully developed nuclear warheads, yet this was to remain speculative until 1998 when Pakistan conducted its nuclear testing at the Chaghaii hills.

Suspected nuclear states

Countries believed to have at least one nuclear weapon, or programs with a realistic chance of producing a nuclear weapon in the near future:

File:Vanuunu-Article.jpg
On October 5, 1986, the British newspaper The Sunday Times ran Mordechai Vanunu's story on its front page under the headline: "Revealed — the secrets of Israel's nuclear arsenal."
File:UCF.gif
At the Uranium Conversion Facility in Isfahan, Iran, yellowcake is converted into uranium hexafluoride as part of Iran's nuclear fuel cycle, which has been alleged to be part of a clandestine attempt to develop nuclear weapons.
  •   Iran - Iran signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and says its interest in nuclear technology, including enrichment, was for civilian purposes only, but the CIA claim this to be a cover for a nuclear weapons program. [11] [12] The Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi stated on the intentions of his country's nuclear ambitions: "Iran will develop nuclear power abilities and this have to be recognized by the treaties [13]
  •   North Korea - On January 10, 2003 North Korea withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In February 2005 they claimed to possess functional nuclear weapons, though their lack of a test has led many experts to question whether or not they have a working weapon. They have recently signed a treaty with the United States, promising to give up all of the supposed nuclear weapons and programs.

States formerly possessing nuclear weapons

Nuclear weapons have been present in many nations, often as staging grounds under control of other powers. However, in only a few instances have nations given up nuclear weapons after being in control of them; in most cases this has been because of special political circumstances. The fall of the USSR, for example, left many former Soviet-bloc countries in possession of nuclear weapons.

  •   Ukraine - signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The Ukraine inherited about 5,000 nuclear weapons when it became independent from the USSR in 1991, making its nuclear arsenal the third-largest in the world [14]. By 1996, the Ukraine had voluntarily disposed of all nuclear weapons within its territory, transferring them to Russia. [15].
  •   Belarus – A few Eastern European countries inherited whatever nuclear stockpiles happened to be stationed in their territory after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Belarus had 81 single warhead missiles which it returned to Russia by 1996. Belarus signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. [16]
  •   Kazakhstan – Inherited 1,400 nuclear weapons from Soviet Union, returned them all to Russia by 1995. Signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. [17]
  •   South Africa – Produced six nuclear weapons in the 1980s but disassembled them in the early 1990s, and is thus the only nation known to have willingly given up nuclear status after developing their own weapons. Possibly tested a low yield device in 1979, perhaps with Israel, over the southern oceans in the Vela Incident. Signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. [18]

States formerly possessing nuclear programs

These are nations known to have initiated serious nuclear weapons programs, with varying degrees of success. All of them are now regarded as currently no longer actively developing, or possessing, nuclear arms. All of the listed countries (or their descendants) signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

  •   Argentina – Conducted a nuclear weapon research program, under military rule in 1978, at a time when it had signed, but not ratified, the Treaty of Tlatelolco. This program was abandoned after the return of civilian rule in 1983. Argentina later signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. [19]. However, unofficial reports and US intelligence postulate that Argentina continued some kind of nuclear weapons program during the 1980's and 1990's, mainly because of rivalry with Brazil. [20]
  •   Australia – Following World War II, Australian defence policy premised joint nuclear weapons development with the United Kingdom. Australia provided uranium, land for weapons and rocket tests, and scientific and engineering expertise. Canberra was also heavily involved in the Blue Streak ballistic missile program. In 1955, a contract was signed with a British company to build the Hi-Flux Australian Reactor (HIFAR). HIFAR was considered the first step towards the construction of larger reactors capable of producing substantial volumes of plutonium for nuclear weapons. However, Australia's nuclear ambitions were abandoned by the 1960s, and the country signed the NPT in 1970 (ratified in 1973). [21]
  •   Brazil – Military regime conducted a nuclear weapon research program (code-named "Solimões") to acquire nuclear weapons in 1978, in spite of having ratified the Treaty of Tlatelolco in 1968. When an elected government came into power in 1985, though, the program was ended. On July 13, 1998 President Fernando Henrique Cardoso signed and ratified both the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), denying that Brazil had developed nuclear weapons.
  •   Egypt – Had a nuclear weapon research program from 1954 to 1967. Egypt signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. [22]
  •   Nazi Germany – During World War II, Germany, under Nazi rule, researched possibilities to develop a nuclear weapon. However adequate resources were not invested into the effort and the project was found to be many years from completion by the end of the war. The research site was also sabotaged by the British spies and Norwegian partisans which slowed down their research (see Norwegian heavy water sabotage). Historian Rainer Karlsch, in his 2005 book Hitlers Bombe, has suggested that the Nazis may have tested some sort of "atom bomb" in Thuringia in the last year of the war (it may have been a radiological weapon rather than a fission weapon). (See: German nuclear energy project) Germany now is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Although it has an advanced science and technology infrastructure and would be capable of creating a nuclear weapons program (and could probably be considered a "nuclear capable" state), the government has decided to decrease even the civil use of nuclear energy.
  •   Iraq – Signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Had a nuclear weapon research program during the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. In 1981, Israel destroyed Iraqi nuclear reactor Osiraq. In 1996, the UN's Hans Blix reported that Iraq had dismantled or destroyed all of their nuclear capabilities. In 2003, the United States invaded Iraq, charging that there was evidence the nation had "weapons of mass destruction" that likely included some form of nuclear program. However in 2004 the Duelfer Report concluded Iraq's nuclear program was terminated in 1991. [23]
  •   Imperial Japan – Japan conducted research into nuclear weapons during World War II though made little headway.[24] (see Japanese atomic program). Japan signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. While Japan has the technological capabilities to develop nuclear weapons in a short time there is no evidence they are doing so. Japan's constitution forbids it from producing nuclear weapons and the country has been active in promoting non-proliferation treaties. There exists some suspicion that nuclear weapons may be located in US bases in Japan. [25]
  •   Libya – Signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. On December 19, 2003, Libya admitted having had a nuclear weapon program and simultaneously announced its intention to end it and dismantle all existing Weapons of Mass Destruction to be verified by unconditional inspections.
  •   Poland – Nuclear research began in Poland in the early 1960s, with the first controlled nuclear fission reaction being achieved in late 1960s. During the 1970s further research resulted in the generation of fusion neutrons through convergent shockwaves. In the 1980s research focused on the development of micro-nuclear reactions, and was under military control. Currently Poland operates the MARIA nuclear research reactor under the control of the Institute of Atomic Energy, in Świerk near Warsaw. Poland signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and officially possess no nuclear weapons.
  •   Romania – Signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In spite of this, under Nicolae Ceauşescu, in the 1980s, Romania had a secret nuclear-weapons development program, that was stopped after the overthrow of Ceauşescu in 1989. Now Romania runs a nuclear power plant of two reactor units (with three more under construction) built with Canadian support. It also mines and enriches its own uranium for the plant and has a research program. [26]
  •   South Korea – Began a nuclear weapons program in the early 1970s, which was believed abandoned after signing NPT in 1975. However there have been allegations that program may have been continued after this date by the military government. [27] In late 2004, the South Korean government disclosed to the IAEA that scientists in South Korea had extracted plutonium in 1982 and enriched uranium to near-weapons grade in 2000. (see South Korean nuclear research programs)
  •   Sweden – During the 1950s and 1960s, Sweden seriously investigated nuclear weapons, intended to be deployed over coastal facilities of an invading enemy (read: the Soviet Union). A very substantial research effort of weapon design and manufacture was conducted resulting in enough knowledge to allow Sweden to manufacture nuclear weapons. A weapon research facility was to be built in Studsvik. Saab made plans for a supersonic nuclear bomber, the A36. However Sweden decided not to pursue a weapon production program and signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
  •   Switzerland – Between 1946 and 1969 Switzerland had a secret nuclear program that came into light in 1995. By 1963 theoretical basics with detailed technical proposals, specific arsenals, and cost estimates for Swiss nuclear armaments were made. This program was, however, abandoned partly because of financial costs and by signing the NPT on November 27, 1969.
  •   The Republic of China (Taiwan) – Conducted a covert nuclear weapon research program from 1964 until 1988 when it was stopped as a result of U.S. pressure. [28] Signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1968. According to a previously classified 1974 U.S. Defense Department memorandum [29] Secretary of Defense James Schlesinger expressed a view during a meeting with Ambassador Leonard Unger that U.S. nuclear weapons housed in Taiwan needed to be withdrawn. The ROC is said to be currently developing the Tien Chi, a short-range ballistic missile system that could reach the coast of mainland China. [30]
  • Yugoslavia
    •   Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia's nuclear ambitions began as early as 1950s when scientists considered both uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing. In 1956, the Vinča fuel reprocessing site was constructed, followed by research reactors in 1958 and 1959, for which the Soviets provided heavy water and enriched uranium. In 1966, plutonium reprocessing tests began in Vinča laboratories, resulting in gram quantities of reprocessed plutonium. During the 1950s and 1960s there was also cooperation in plutonium processing between Yugoslavia and Norway. In the year 1960 Tito froze the nuclear program for unknown reasons, but restarted it, after India's first nuclear tests, in 1974. The program continued even after Tito's death in 1980, divided into two components – for weapons design and civilian nuclear energy, until a decision to stop all nuclear weapons research was made in July 1987. The civilian nuclear program however resulted in a nuclear power plant Krško built in 1983, now co-owned by Slovenia and Croatia, and used for peaceful production of electricity.
    •   Federal Republic of Yugoslavia inherited the Vinča laboratories and 50 kilograms of highly enriched uranium stored at the site. During the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999, Vinča was never hit because the Americans were aware of the HEU; indeed, it may have been a reason for the NATO intervention. After the end of NATO bombings the U.S. government and the Nuclear Threat Initiative transported the HEU to Russia – the place from which Yugoslavia originally acquired it.

Other nuclear-capable states

Virtually any industrialized nation today has the technical capability to develop nuclear weapons within several years if the decision to do so were made. Nations already possessing substantial nuclear technology and arms industries could do so in no more than a year or two, perhaps even as fast as a few months or weeks, if they so decided to. The larger industrial nations (Japan and Germany for example) could, within several years of deciding to do so, build arsenals rivaling those of the states that already have nuclear weapons. This list below mentions some notable capabilities possessed by certain states that could potentially be turned to the development of nuclear arsenals. This list represents only strong nuclear capability, not the political will to develop weapons. All of the listed countries have signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

  •   Canada - Canada has a well developed nuclear technology base, large uranium reserves and markets reactors for civilian use. While Canada has the technological capabilities to develop nuclear weapons, there is no hard evidence they have done so, nor has Canada ever shown the intention to join the nuclear club outright. Canada has been an important contributor of both expertise and raw materials to the American program in the past, and had even helped with the Manhattan Project. In 1959, NATO proposed to Canada that the RCAF assume a nuclear strike role in Europe. Thus in 1962 six Canadian CF-104 squadrons based in Europe were formed into the RCAF Nuclear Strike Force armed with B28 nuclear bombs (originally Mk 28) under the NATO nuclear weapons sharing program; the Force was disbanded in 1972 when Canada opted out of the nuclear strike role. Canada accepted having American W-40 nuclear warheads under dual key control on Canadian soil in 1963 to be used on the Canadian BOMARC missiles. The Canadian air force also maintained a stockpile of AIR-2 Genie unguided nuclear air-to-air rockets as the primary wartime weapon on the CF-101 Voodoo all-weather interceptor after 1965. Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau declared Canada would be a nuclear weapon-free country in 1971, and the last American warheads were withdrawn in 1984.
  •   Japan - While Japan has no political will for the acquisition of nuclear weapons, the country does make extensive use of nuclear energy in nuclear reactors, generating a significant percentage of the electricity in Japan. Japan has the third largest nuclear energy production after the U.S. and France, and plans to produce over 40% of its electricity using nuclear power by 2010. Significant amounts of plutonium are created as a by-product of the energy production, and Japan had 4.7 tons of plutonium in December 1995. Experts believe Japan has the technology, raw materials, and the capital to produce nuclear weapons within one year if necessary, and some analysts consider it a "de facto" nuclear state for this reason. Others have noted that Japan's most advanced space exploration rocket, the M-5 three-stage solid fuel rocket, is in fact a close copy of the U.S. LG-118A Peacekeeper ICBM. Japan has been quietly reconsidering its nuclear status because of the ongoing crisis over North Korean nuclear weapons.[31]
  •   Italy - Italy has operated a number of nuclear reactors, both for power and for research. The country was also a base for the GLCM nuclear-armed ground-launched variant of the Tomahawk cruise missile during the 1980s, despite strong public outcry. While no evidence suggests that Italy intends to develop or deploy nuclear weapons, such a capability exists - estimates from as far back as the mid-80s show that Italy could begin and complete a nuclear weapons program in as little as 2 to 3 years.
  •   Lithuania - Nuclear power reactors produce 77% of Lithuania's electricity and it has 2 of the world's most powerful reactors in its territory. However, one of these reactors was recently shut down. Lithuania has the means of legally acquiring fissile materials for power plants. Lithuania also has former launch sites for Soviet Union missiles. However, there is no political will at present to develop nuclear weapons in Lithuania.
  •   Netherlands - Operates a power reactor at Borsele, producing 452 MW, which satisfies 5% of its electrical needs. Several Dutch companies are key participants in the tri-national Urenco uranium enrichment consortium. By the year 2000 the Netherlands had about 2 tonnes of separated reactor grade plutonium. There is no evidence for nuclear weapon programs in the Netherlands.
  •   Saudi Arabia - In 2003 members of the government stated that due to the worsening relations with the USA, Saudi Arabia was being forced to consider the development of nuclear weapons. However, so far they have denied that they are making any attempt to produce them. [32] Rumor has it that Pakistan has transferred several nuclear weapons to Saudi Arabia, but this is unconfirmed. [33][34]
  •   Venezuela - In 2004 Venezuela's president Hugo Chavez expressed interest in developing a Nuclear reactor with the help of Argentina, critics claim that it might be a stepping stone for Venezuela developing nuclear weapons in response of US military training of Colombian armed forces and possible US Invasion. Venezuela ratified the NPT.[35][36] In a recent statement US President George W Bush said the US has no objections on Venezuela acquiring nuclear technology.[37]

See also

References

  1. ^ Webster, Paul (July/August 2003). "Just like old times," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 59:4: 30-35. [38]
  2. ^ Natural Resources Defense Council (2002). Nuclear stockpiles and Forces, (or other sources cited)
  3. ^ Norris, Robert S. and Hans M. Kristensen. "Chinese nuclear forces, 2003," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 59:6 (Nov/Dec 2003): 77-80, [39]; Lewis, Jeffery. "The ambiguous arsenal," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 61:3 (May/June 2005): 52-59. [40].
  4. ^ Natural Resources Defense Council (2002). Table of Indian Nuclear Forces
  5. ^ Natural Resources Defense Council (2002). Table of Pakistani Nuclear Forces
  6. ^ globalsecurity.org. Nuclear Weapons Program - (North Korea)
  7. ^ globalsecurity.org. Nuclear Weapons Testing - North Korean Statements
  8. ^ Norris, Robert S. and Hans M. Kristensen. "Chinese nuclear forces, 2003," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 59:6 (Nov/Dec 2003): 77-80, [41]; Lewis, Jeffery. "The ambiguous arsenal," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 61:3 (May/June 2005): 52-59. [42].
  9. ^ Federation of American Scientists (fas.org) (August 17, 2000). Nuclear Weapons
  10. ^ Nuclear Threat Intiative (nti.com) Iran: Nuclear Chronology
  11. ^ Federation of American Scientists (fas.org) (June 16, 2005). Nuclear Weapons Recent Developments
  12. ^ Fox News (June 12, 2004). Iran Wants to Be Part of 'Nuclear Club'
  13. ^ globalsecurity.org. Ukraine Special Weapons
  14. ^ Federation of American Scientists (fas.org). Ukraine Special Weapons
  15. ^ Federation of American Scientists (fas.org) (October 2, 1999). Nuclear Weapons Program - (Argentina)
  16. ^ Green Left Weekly (March 21, 2001). Australia and the atomic empire
  17. ^ Federation of American Scientists (fas.org). Belarus Special Weapons
  18. ^ CNN.com, "Ex-leader says Brazil pursued A-bomb" (August 8, 2005). [43]; Federation of American Scientists (fas.org) (October 2, 1999). Nuclear Weapons Programs - (Brazil)
  19. ^ Federation of American Scientists (fas.org) (February 4, 2005). Nuclear Weapons Program - (Egypt)
  20. ^ Nuclear Threat Intiative (nti.com) (May 2005). Iraq profile - Nuclear Overview
  21. ^ Nuclear Threat Intiative (nti.com) (May 2005). Japan Overview
  22. ^ Federation of American Scientists (fas.org). Kazakhstan Special Weapons
  23. ^ Federation of American Scientists (fas.org). Romania Special Weapons
  24. ^ Federation of American Scientists (fas.org) (May 29, 2000). Nuclear Weapons Program (South Africa)
  25. ^ Nuclear Threat Intiative (nti.com) (August 2003). South Korea Overview
  26. ^ Federation of American Scientists (fas.org) (April 4, 2000). Taiwan Nuclear Weapons
  27. ^ Defense Department memorandum of conversation (April 12 1974). "Call by Ambassador (Leonard) Unger"
  28. ^ Nuclear Threat Intiative (nti.com) (January 2003). Taiwan Overview
  29. ^ Washington Times (August 8, 2005). North Korean threat nudges Japan to rethink nukes
  30. ^ The Guardian (September 18, 2003). Saudis consider nuclear bomb
  31. ^ Akaki Dvali. Center for Nonproliferation Studies (nti.com) (March 2004). Will Saudi Arabia Acquire Nuclear Weapons?
  32. ^ Arnaud de Borchgrave. Washington Times (October 22, 2003) Pakistan, Saudi Arabia in secret nuke pact
  33. ^ Federation of American Scientists (fas.org) (April 16, 2000) Nuclear Weapons Program - Japan
  34. ^ Forbes (forbes.com) (October 10, 2005) Venezuela seeks to buy medium-sized nuclear reactor from Argentina
  35. ^ CBSNews (CBSNews.com) (November 2, 2005) Bush Open to Venezuela Nuclear Reactor
  36. ^ Neoliberalismo (Neoliberalismo.org) Venezuela/Cuba: A Nuclear Threat
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