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The AI bubble is a theorised ongoing stock market bubble, occurring during the AI boom, an ongoing period of rapid progression in artificial intelligence (AI).
Background
editSpeculation about a bubble
editIn late January 2025, after the unexpectedly successful launch of the Chinese-made chatbot DeepSeek, the stock prices of many AI companies dropped, such as Nvidia's stock price dropping 8.8% in one day, resulting in concerns about a possible AI bubble. The stock market soon recovered however.[5][6]
In August 2025, a report by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology stated "despite US$30-40bn in enterprise investment into Gen[erative]AI, [...] 95% of organisations are getting zero return".[7] This caused concerns about a potential AI bubble and within days the stock market dropped by a few percentage points, a drop of $1 trillion.[8][7] The report found however that the lack of returns was not caused by the AI models being incapable, but instead by the companies not using them effectively.[7]
Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI and a leading figure of the AI boom, stated in 2025 that he believes that an AI bubble is ongoing. He has however stated that he believes, similarly to the dot-com bubble, "investors as a whole are overexcited about AI" but also that "AI the most important thing to happen in a very long time".[9]
In early 2025, Bridgewater Associates co-investment officer Ray Dalio said that the current levels of investment in AI is "very similar" to the dot-com bubble.[9]
See also
edit- Cryptocurrency bubble – Speculative bubble involving cryptocurrency prices
References
edit- ^ Knight, Will. "Google's Gemini Is the Real Start of the Generative AI Boom". Wired. Retrieved 12 December 2023.
- ^ Meredith, Sam (6 December 2023). "A 'thirsty' generative AI boom poses a growing problem for Big Tech". CNBC. Retrieved 12 December 2023.
- ^ Bommasani, Rishi (17 March 2023). "AI Spring? Four Takeaways from Major Releases in Foundation Models". Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence. Archived from the original on 7 May 2023. Retrieved 16 May 2023.
- ^ "The coming of AI Spring". www.mckinsey.com. Retrieved 7 December 2023.
- ^ Butts, Dylan (18 August 2025). "OpenAI's Sam Altman sees AI bubble forming as industry spending surges". CNBC. Retrieved 26 August 2025.
- ^ "Nvidia and Microsoft shares steady after DeepSeek AI app shock". www.bbc.com. 28 January 2025. Retrieved 26 August 2025.
- ^ a b c Kahn, Jeremy. "An MIT report that 95% of AI pilots fail spooked investors. But it's the reason why those pilots failed that should make the C-suite anxious". Fortune. Retrieved 26 August 2025.
- ^ "US tech stocks lose $1tn on AI bubble fears". The Telegraph. 20 August 2025. Retrieved 26 August 2025.
- ^ a b "Wall Street isn't worried about an AI bubble. Sam Altman is". Fortune. 19 August 2025. Retrieved 26 August 2025.