The HELIOS Model (Hybrid Evaluation of Lifecycle and Impact of Outstanding Science) is a comprehensive framework designed to evaluate the maturity of emerging technologies by integrating multiple key indicators. The model combines data from R&D investment, scientific publications, patents, adoption levels, and regulatory frameworks to position each technology within its lifecycle phase.
Overview
editHELIOS [1] provides a composite index that simultaneously reflects both the state of scientific development (research impact) and technological advancement (diffusion and investment) of a technology. This hybrid approach draws inspiration from established frameworks such as NASA's Technology readiness level (TRL) and Rogers' adoption categories, which link technological evolution with user acceptance.[2]
In the HELIOS framework, each variable indicates a complementary aspect of maturity: sustained growth in investment and publications typically precedes phases of technological expansion, while an elaborate regulatory environment points to a more consolidated technology.
Mathematical formulation
editThe HELIOS index is calculated as a weighted average of five normalized variables (I, P, Pt, A, R) representing investment, publications, patents, adoption, and regulation, each scaled to the range [0,1]:
Where the weights sum to 1. A typical weight distribution might be:
- Investment (wI): 0.25
- Publications (wP): 0.25
- Patents (wPt): 0.20
- Adoption (wA): 0.25
- Regulation (wR): 0.05
The resulting HELIOS value ranges from 0 (very early-stage technology) to 1 (high maturity).
Scoring criteria and normalization
editEach key variable is measured using standardized criteria and scales:
Investment (R&D)
editAnnual investment amount (public + private) in USD, normalized by dividing by the highest recorded level or sectoral target. Typical scoring ranges:
- 0: Minimal investment
- 0.2: Low investment
- 0.5: Moderate investment
- 1.0: Very high investment
Scientific publications
editNumber of academic articles in the related discipline per year, normalized against historical maximum. Example ranges:
- 0–10 articles: 0–0.2
- 11–50 articles: 0.2–0.5
- 51–200 articles: 0.5–0.8
- >200 articles: 0.8–1.0
Patents
editNumber of patent families published annually in the field. Similar normalization to publications:[3]
- 0–50 patents: 0–0.3
- 51–200 patents: 0.3–0.6
- 201–500 patents: 0.6–0.9
- >500 patents: 0.9–1.0
Adoption
editDegree of technology implementation or usage, estimated as market penetration following the diffusion of innovations model:
- <1%: ~0
- 1–10%: 0.1–0.3
- 10–50%: 0.3–0.7
- >50%: 0.7–1.0
Regulation
editMaturity level of legal frameworks and standards, qualitatively assessed:
- 0: No regulation
- 0.5: Partial regulations
- 1.0: Complete and harmonized regulation
Visual representation
editThe current state of the five variables can be represented graphically using a radar chart, where each dimension (investment, publications, patents, adoption, regulation) is measured from 0 to 1. The resulting surface reflects the technology maturity profile. Additionally, the typical Sigmoid function (S-Curve) illustrates the overall maturity trajectory: its maximum slope indicates the inflection point (rapid growth phase) and the final saturation level marks complete maturity.
Variables and Scoring
edit| Variable | Metric | Normalization | Typical Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Investment (I) | Annual R&D spend (USD) | I/Imax | 0.25 |
| Publications (P) | Articles per year | P/Pmax | 0.25 |
| Patents (Pt) | Patent families per year | Pt/Ptmax | 0.20 |
| Adoption (A) | % market penetration | tiered scale | 0.25 |
| Regulation (R) | Quality of legal standards | tiered scale | 0.05 |
Practical example: Quantum computing
editTo illustrate HELIOS, consider quantum computing with recent data:
- Investment (I = 0.8): The sector has attracted billions of dollars, with McKinsey & Company estimating the global quantum market could reach $100 billion within ten years.[4]
- Publications (P ≈ 0.9): The field has grown exponentially with increasing literature output.
- Patents (Pt ≈ 0.8): Reports show thousands of new families annually (e.g., 3,795 in 2023 vs 1,899 in 2020).[5]
- Adoption (A = 0.3): Commercial adoption remains modest, mainly prototypes and cloud services.
- Regulation (R ≈ 0.4): Emerging regulatory framework, including U.S. export controls implemented in 2024.[6]
Using suggested weights:
A value of ~0.65 indicates an early growth stage, consistent with rapid expansion in patents and investment but limited adoption. This suggests quantum computing is still far from saturation, with the S-curve's increasing slope indicating that the mass adoption tipping point may be approaching.
Applications and interpretation
editHELIOS values near 0.5–0.7 correspond to technologies in the development/early adoption phase, while indices close to 1 indicate maturity or stagnation. The model enables:
- Comparative analysis between different technologies
- Assessment of technology trajectory and lifecycle positioning
- Strategic decision-making for R&D investment and policy
- Technology forecasting and planning
See also
editReferences
edit- ^ Disruptive Horizons: The 10 technologies that will redefine the next decade. 2025. ISBN 9798294856489.
- ^ "User needs over time: the market and technology maturity model (MTMM)". Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship. 2023.
- ^ "Assessing the life cycle of technologies". European Patent Office. 2023.
- ^ "The Rise of Quantum Computing". McKinsey & Company. 2025.
- ^ "Certainty in the trajectory of patents for quantum computing". Appleyard Lees. 2024.
- ^ "Department of Commerce Releases Export Controls on Quantum Technologies". National Quantum Initiative. 2024.